Football · Germany Bundesliga I · 28/08, 20:30
Prediction: Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart
Team pages: Bayern Munich · VfB Stuttgart
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.38Total
Bayern Munich3.15
VfB Stuttgart1.24
1X2
Bayern Munich
Draw
VfB Stuttgart
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bayern Munich
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
VfB Stuttgart
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bayern Munich
6–0
VfB Stuttgart
(6 last)
- Bayern Munich3-0VfB Stuttgart
- Bayern Munich4-2VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart0-5Bayern Munich
- VfB Stuttgart1-2Bayern Munich
- VfB Stuttgart1-3Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich4-0VfB Stuttgart
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bayern Munich 1671 · VfB Stuttgart 1578
| Bayern Munich | Draw | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| Market | 74% | 15% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.38 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bayern Munich (rating 1671 vs 1578).
- H2H favours Bayern Munich: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bayern Munich | VfB Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.4 / 1.3 | 2.3 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 6.8 | 3.9 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.3 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bayern Munich 6–0–0 VfB Stuttgart
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Germany DFB Pokal | Bayern Munich | 3-0 HT 0-0 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 19/04/26 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 4-2 HT 3-1 | VfB Stuttgart |
| 06/12/25 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 0-5 HT 0-1 | Bayern Munich |
| 16/08/25 Germany Super Cup | VfB Stuttgart | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Bayern Munich |
| 28/02/25 Germany Bundesliga I | VfB Stuttgart | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Bayern Munich |
| 19/10/24 Germany Bundesliga I | Bayern Munich | 4-0 HT 0-0 | VfB Stuttgart |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga I
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cologne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Borussia M'gladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mainz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hamburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Paderborn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Schalke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | TSG Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bayern Munich | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Mainz | 4-3 W | 2-2 D |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bayern Munich
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | Cologne Germany Bundesliga I |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 13 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
0-3 | 4-3 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | VfB Stuttgart Germany Bundesliga I |
3-1 | 4-2 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | SC Freiburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 21/03 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 14/03 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 06/03 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
VfB Stuttgart
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Bayer Leverkusen Germany Bundesliga I |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | TSG Hoffenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Bayern Munich Germany Bundesliga I |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 12/04 | Hamburg Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | Borussia Dortmund Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 22/03 | Augsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
3-0 | 5-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 15/03 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 07/03 | Mainz Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bayern Munich win (74%). Probabilities: Bayern Munich 74%, draw 15%, VfB Stuttgart 11%.
How many goals are expected in Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart?
The model expects 4.38 goals (Bayern Munich 3.15 · VfB Stuttgart 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.