Football · France Ligue 3 · 07/08, 20:45

Prediction: FC Fleury 91 vs Amiens

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

FC Fleury 911.54

Amiens1.39

1X2

39% 28% 33%

FC Fleury 91 Draw Amiens

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Fleury 91 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Amiens 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Fleury 91 0–1–1 Amiens (2 last)

Amiens2-0FC Fleury 91
FC Fleury 911-1Amiens

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Fleury 91 1454 · Amiens 1474

	FC Fleury 91	Draw	Amiens
Our model	40%	27%	33%
Market	39%	29%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Fleury 91	Amiens
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.17
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.17 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:08 +13’	2.30	3.10	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:54	2.30	3.17	3.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Fleury 91 0–1–1 Amiens

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Amiens	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Fleury 91
16/11/24 France Cup	FC Fleury 91	1-1 HT 1-0	Amiens

Standings · France Ligue 3

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Amiens	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cannes	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Fleury 91	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rouen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Versailles 78	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Villefranche	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bourg-Peronnas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	La Roche VF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Le Puy	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Paris 13 Atletico	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	US Quevilly	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aubagne Air Bel	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SC Bastia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Caen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Thionville FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Concarneau	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	US Orleans 45	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valenciennes	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Fleury 91

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Versailles 78 Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
17/07	Creteil Club Friendly List	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
15/07	Boulogne Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-2	2	0	L
11/07	Nantes Europe Friendlies	0-3	0-5	5	1	L
15/05	Rouen France Ligue 3	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
09/05	US Orleans 45 France National	0-2	0-2	9	4	L
01/05	Le Puy France Ligue 3	3-0	4-0	5	2	W
24/04	Chateauroux France Ligue 3	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
17/04	Valenciennes France National	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
10/04	Sochaux France National	0-1	2-2	1	4	D

Amiens

LLLLWWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Red Star FC 93 Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-1	1	4	W
31/07	Chambly Thelle FC Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-0	3	1	W
25/07	KV Kortrijk Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
24/07	Boulogne Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
18/07	US Quevilly Europe Friendlies	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
17/07	Le Havre Club Friendly List	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
11/07	Paris 13 Atletico Europe Friendlies	1-3	2-4	8	0	L
09/05	St Etienne France Ligue 2	0-2	0-5	6	2	L
02/05	Red Star FC 93 France Ligue 2	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
24/04	Montpellier France Ligue 2	0-1	0-2	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Fleury 91 vs Amiens?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Fleury 91 win (39%). Probabilities: FC Fleury 91 39%, draw 28%, Amiens 33%.

How many goals are expected in FC Fleury 91 vs Amiens?

The model expects 2.93 goals (FC Fleury 91 1.54 · Amiens 1.39), with a 59% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Fleury 91 vs Amiens?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.