Football · France Ligue 3 · 29/08, 14:45

Prediction: Valenciennes vs Concarneau

Team pages: Valenciennes · Concarneau

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.24Total
Valenciennes1.22
Concarneau1.02
1X2
40% 31% 30%
Valenciennes Draw Concarneau
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Valenciennes 2-2-6 (W-D-L)
LWLLDLDLWL
Concarneau 2-6-2 (W-D-L)
LDDWDDDLDW
Head-to-head
Valenciennes 1–2–3 Concarneau (6 last)
  • Concarneau1-2Valenciennes
  • Valenciennes1-2Concarneau
  • Concarneau1-1Valenciennes
  • Valenciennes3-3Concarneau
  • Concarneau1-0Valenciennes
  • Valenciennes0-1Concarneau
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valenciennes 1487 · Concarneau 1522
ValenciennesDrawConcarneau
Our model39%31%29%
Market40%30%30%
Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Concarneau: 3-2-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

ValenciennesConcarneau
Goals for / against (FT)0.9 / 1.60.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)0.2 / 0.60.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/40/40%20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)2.5 / 5.62.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4 / 0.53.1 / 0.3

Head-to-head (H2H) · Valenciennes 123 Concarneau

Swipe the table sideways →

DateHomeScoreAway
20/03/26
France National
Concarneau1-2
HT 0-0
Valenciennes
17/10/25
France National
Valenciennes1-2
HT 1-1
Concarneau
21/02/25
France National
Concarneau1-1
HT 1-1
Valenciennes
20/09/24
France National
Valenciennes3-3
HT 3-0
Concarneau
03/02/24
France Ligue 2
Concarneau1-0
HT 0-0
Valenciennes
26/09/23
France Ligue 2
Valenciennes0-1
HT 0-1
Concarneau

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentValenciennesConcarneau
Paris 13 Atletico 1-2 L 0-0 D
Caen 0-4 L 0-0 D
US Quevilly 2-3 L 1-1 D
Record vs common 0 W 0 D 3 L 0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Concarneau (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valenciennes

LWLLDLDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
20/08 Paris 13 Atletico
France Ligue 3
0-1 1-2 64 L
14/08 Bourg-Peronnas
France Ligue 3
1-0 2-0 44 W
07/08 Caen
France Ligue 3
0-2 0-4 55 L
15/05 Chateauroux
France National
1-0 2-2 55 D
09/05 Bourg-Peronnas
France National
0-0 0-1 75 L
02/05 Sochaux
France National
0-1 1-1 39 D
24/04 Dijon
France National
0-0 0-1 51 L
17/04 FC Fleury 91
France National
0-0 0-2 83 L
10/04 Versailles 78
France National
0-0 1-0 43 W
03/04 US Quevilly
France National
0-2 2-3 96 L

Concarneau

LDDWDDDLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
20/08 Villefranche
France Ligue 3
1-0 2-0 75 W
14/08 US Quevilly
France Ligue 3
0-1 1-1 48 D
07/08 US Orleans 45
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-2 44 L
15/05 Villefranche
France National
1-1 2-2 42 D
09/05 Caen
France National
0-0 0-0 33 D
30/04 Paris 13 Atletico
France National
0-0 0-0 73 D
24/04 Stade Briochin
France National
1-1 2-1 52 W
17/04 Rouen
France National
0-0 0-0 40 D
10/04 US Orleans 45
France National
1-0 1-1 36 D
03/04 Le Puy
France National
0-2 0-3 61 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valenciennes vs Concarneau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valenciennes win (40%). Probabilities: Valenciennes 40%, draw 31%, Concarneau 30%.

How many goals are expected in Valenciennes vs Concarneau?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Valenciennes 1.22 · Concarneau 1.02), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Concarneau?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.