Football · France Ligue 3 · 05/09, 14:45

Prediction: Le Puy vs US Orleans 45

Team pages: Le Puy · US Orleans 45

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.29Total
Le Puy1.24
US Orleans 451.04
1X2
40% 29% 30%
Le Puy Draw US Orleans 45
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Le Puy 2-3-5 (W-D-L)
LDDLLDWLWL
US Orleans 45 4-2-4 (W-D-L)
DWLDWLWLWL
Head-to-head
Le Puy 1–2–1 US Orleans 45 (4 last)
  • Le Puy1-1US Orleans 45
  • US Orleans 451-1Le Puy
  • Le Puy0-1US Orleans 45
  • US Orleans 451-2Le Puy
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Le Puy 1481 · US Orleans 45 1526
Le PuyDrawUS Orleans 45
Our model39%31%30%
Market41%28%31%
Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours US Orleans 45 (rating 1481 vs 1526).
  • High corners: 11 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Le PuyUS Orleans 45
Goals for / against (FT)0.9 / 1.51.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 10.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/30/50%20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 5.22.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)2.8 / 0.14.8 / 0.3

Head-to-head (H2H) · Le Puy 121 US Orleans 45

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DateHomeScoreAway
13/02/26
France Ligue 3
Le Puy1-1
HT 0-1
US Orleans 45
05/09/25
France Ligue 3
US Orleans 451-1
HT 0-1
Le Puy
21/04/23
France Ligue 3
Le Puy0-1
HT 0-1
US Orleans 45
02/12/22
France Ligue 3
US Orleans 451-2
HT 1-1
Le Puy

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentLe PuyUS Orleans 45
Versailles 78 0-1 L 0-0 D
Dijon 1-2 L 2-3 L
FC Fleury 91 0-4 L 2-0 W
US Quevilly 0-0 D 0-3 L
Aubagne Air Bel 1-2 L 2-0 W
Record vs common 0 W 1 D 4 L 2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: US Orleans 45 (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Le Puy

LDDLLDWLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
29/08 Cannes
France Ligue 3
0-1 0-2 82 L
20/08 Amiens
France Ligue 3
1-0 1-0 25 W
14/08 Versailles 78
France Ligue 3
0-1 0-1 24 L
07/08 SC Bastia
France Ligue 3
1-0 2-0 W
15/05 Sochaux
France Ligue 3
0-2 2-2 32 D
09/05 Dijon
France Ligue 3
0-1 1-2 94 L
01/05 FC Fleury 91
France Ligue 3
0-3 0-4 82 L
24/04 Versailles 78
France Ligue 3
1-1 2-2 12 D
17/04 US Quevilly
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-0 64 D
10/04 Aubagne Air Bel
France Ligue 3
1-1 1-2 81 L

US Orleans 45

DWLDWLWLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
29/08 La Roche VF
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-1 75 L
20/08 FC Fleury 91
France Ligue 3
1-0 2-0 108 W
14/08 Rouen
France Ligue 3
0-1 1-2 44 L
07/08 Concarneau
France Ligue 3
0-0 2-0 44 W
15/05 Dijon
France Ligue 3
0-1 2-3 43 L
09/05 FC Fleury 91
France Ligue 3
2-0 2-0 54 W
01/05 Versailles 78
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-0 47 D
24/04 US Quevilly
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-3 75 L
17/04 Aubagne Air Bel
France Ligue 3
0-0 2-0 55 W
10/04 Concarneau
France Ligue 3
0-1 1-1 86 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Le Puy vs US Orleans 45?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Le Puy win (40%). Probabilities: Le Puy 40%, draw 29%, US Orleans 45 30%.

How many goals are expected in Le Puy vs US Orleans 45?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Le Puy 1.24 · US Orleans 45 1.04), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Le Puy vs US Orleans 45?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.