Football · France Ligue 3 · 19/11, 20:45

Prediction: Amiens vs Caen

Team pages: Amiens · Caen

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Amiens1.29
Caen1.07
1X2
41% 29% 30%
Amiens Draw Caen
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Amiens 5-4-1 (W-D-L)
LWWDWDWDDW
Caen 6-1-3 (W-D-L)
WLWWLWLWDW
Head-to-head
Amiens 1–1–4 Caen (6 last)
  • Amiens2-1Caen
  • Caen2-1Amiens
  • Caen2-0Amiens
  • Amiens0-0Caen
  • Amiens1-3Caen
  • Caen3-1Amiens
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Amiens 1574 · Caen 1554
AmiensDrawCaen
Our model40%30%29%
Market42%28%31%
Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Caen: 4-1-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

AmiensCaen
Goals for / against (FT)1.6 / 0.41.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.30.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/30/30%30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)2.1 / 4.41.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5 / 0.33.7 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Amiens 1–1–4 Caen

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DateHomeScoreAway
14/03/25
France Ligue 2
Amiens2-1
HT 0-0
Caen
24/09/24
France Ligue 2
Caen2-1
HT 1-1
Amiens
10/02/24
France Ligue 2
Caen2-0
HT 0-0
Amiens
19/12/23
France Ligue 2
Amiens0-0
HT 0-0
Caen
20/05/23
France Ligue 2
Amiens1-3
HT 1-1
Caen
10/09/22
France Ligue 2
Caen3-1
HT 0-0
Amiens

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentAmiensCaen
Aubagne Air Bel 2-0 W 1-0 W
SC Bastia 3-0 W 0-1 L
Versailles 78 3-0 W 1-0 W
Le Puy 0-1 L 2-2 D
Record vs common 3 W 0 D 1 L 2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Amiens (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Amiens

LWWDWDWDDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
07/11 Aubagne Air Bel
France Ligue 3
1-0 2-0 16 W
29/10 Thionville FC
France Ligue 3
0-1 1-1 55 D
17/10 Valenciennes
France Ligue 3
1-0 1-1 55 D
03/10 Villefranche
France Ligue 3
0-0 3-0 64 W
26/09 US Quevilly
France Ligue 3
0-1 1-1 47 D
19/09 US Orleans 45
France Ligue 3
1-0 2-0 –– W
10/09 Cannes
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-0 55 D
05/09 SC Bastia
France Ligue 3
2-0 3-0 –– W
29/08 Versailles 78
France Ligue 3
0-0 3-0 55 W
20/08 Le Puy
France Ligue 3
0-1 0-1 45 L

Caen

WLWWLWLWDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
07/11 Versailles 78
France Ligue 3
0-0 1-0 45 W
31/10 Le Puy
France Ligue 3
1-2 2-2 43 D
15/10 La Roche VF
France Ligue 3
0-1 2-1 63 W
03/10 FC Fleury 91
France Ligue 3
1-1 2-3 33 L
24/09 Rouen
France Ligue 3
3-1 3-2 47 W
19/09 Concarneau
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-2 53 L
12/09 Paris 13 Atletico
France Ligue 3
1-0 2-0 63 W
05/09 Bourg-Peronnas
France Ligue 3
1-0 2-0 42 W
27/08 SC Bastia
France Ligue 3
0-1 0-1 105 L
20/08 Aubagne Air Bel
France Ligue 3
0-0 1-0 –– W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Amiens vs Caen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Amiens win (41%). Probabilities: Amiens 41%, draw 29%, Caen 30%.

How many goals are expected in Amiens vs Caen?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Amiens 1.29 · Caen 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Amiens vs Caen?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.