Football · France Ligue 3 · 21/11, 14:45

Prediction: Cannes vs Aubagne Air Bel

Team pages: Cannes · Aubagne Air Bel

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
Cannes1.65
Aubagne Air Bel0.74
1X2
59% 25% 16%
Cannes Draw Aubagne Air Bel
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Cannes 4-4-2 (W-D-L)
DWWDDDWLWL
Aubagne Air Bel 2-1-7 (W-D-L)
LWDLLWLLLL
Head-to-head
Cannes 1–2 Aubagne Air Bel (3 last)
  • Aubagne Air Bel1-2Cannes
  • Aubagne Air Bel2-1Cannes
  • Cannes0-1Aubagne Air Bel
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cannes 1523 · Aubagne Air Bel 1445
CannesDrawAubagne Air Bel
Our model58%27%15%
Market60%23%17%
Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cannes (rating 1523 vs 1445).
  • H2H favours Aubagne Air Bel: 2-0-1.
  • High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

CannesAubagne Air Bel
Goals for / against (FT)1.3 / 0.70.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)0.5 / 0.50.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/50/20%20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)2.8 / 6.11.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4 / 0.34.7 / 0.6

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cannes 1–0–2 Aubagne Air Bel

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DateHomeScoreAway
24/11/24
France U21 Cup
Aubagne Air Bel1-2
HT 0-2
Cannes
13/04/24
France National 2
Aubagne Air Bel2-1
HT 1-0
Cannes
25/11/23
France National 2
Cannes0-1
HT 0-0
Aubagne Air Bel

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentCannesAubagne Air Bel
Amiens 0-0 D 0-2 L
Versailles 78 3-0 W 0-4 L
Le Puy 2-0 W 0-1 L
La Roche VF 1-1 D 1-3 L
Record vs common 2 W 2 D 0 L 0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Cannes (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cannes

DWWDDDWLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
07/11 Thionville FC
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-1 93 L
31/10 Valenciennes
France Ligue 3
1-0 2-1 37 W
17/10 Villefranche
France Ligue 3
0-2 1-2 56 L
03/10 US Quevilly
France Ligue 3
1-1 3-1 114 W
26/09 US Orleans 45
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-0 74 D
17/09 SC Bastia
France Ligue 3
1-1 1-1 –– D
10/09 Amiens
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-0 45 D
05/09 Versailles 78
France Ligue 3
1-0 3-0 23 W
29/08 Le Puy
France Ligue 3
1-0 2-0 82 W
20/08 La Roche VF
France Ligue 3
0-1 1-1 –– D

Aubagne Air Bel

LWDLLWLLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
07/11 Amiens
France Ligue 3
0-1 0-2 76 L
31/10 Versailles 78
France Ligue 3
0-2 0-4 48 L
17/10 Le Puy
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-1 63 L
03/10 La Roche VF
France Ligue 3
1-0 1-3 58 L
26/09 FC Fleury 91
France Ligue 3
1-1 2-1 45 W
19/09 Rouen
France Ligue 3
0-1 0-1 23 L
12/09 Concarneau
France Ligue 3
0-0 1-2 41 L
05/09 Paris 13 Atletico
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-0 43 D
29/08 Bourg-Peronnas
France Ligue 3
2-0 2-0 310 W
20/08 Caen
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-1 –– L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cannes vs Aubagne Air Bel?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cannes win (59%). Probabilities: Cannes 59%, draw 25%, Aubagne Air Bel 16%.

How many goals are expected in Cannes vs Aubagne Air Bel?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Cannes 1.65 · Aubagne Air Bel 0.74), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cannes vs Aubagne Air Bel?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.