Football · Poland III Liga · 07/11, 17:00

Prediction: Polonia Lidzbark vs CK Troszyn

Team pages: Polonia Lidzbark · CK Troszyn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Polonia Lidzbark1.53

CK Troszyn1.41

1X2

40% 26% 34%

Polonia Lidzbark Draw CK Troszyn

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Lidzbark 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWWLWL

CK Troszyn 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLDLWDLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polonia Lidzbark 1503 · CK Troszyn 1510

	Polonia Lidzbark	Draw	CK Troszyn
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Lidzbark	CK Troszyn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 4.4	2.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.29 ★
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.61
2	2.88 → 2.55▼	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:21 +4’	2.00	3.70	2.88
11:52 +1’	2.20▲	3.60▼	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:22 +60’	2.29	3.61	2.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
6	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	3	5	30	30	24
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	7	2	6	25	21	23
9	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polonia Lidzbark	CK Troszyn
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	1-2 L	1-0 W
LKS Lodz II	3-0 W	1-1 D
Mlawianka Mlawa	2-3 L	1-4 L
LKS Lomza	3-2 W	1-1 D
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-1 W	2-0 W
KTS Weszlo	1-1 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Polonia Lidzbark (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polonia Lidzbark

DWLLDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
24/10	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	2	5	W
17/10	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	5	7	L
10/10	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
03/10	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
26/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
12/09	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
06/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	5	1	W
29/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D

CK Troszyn

DWDLDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/10	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
18/10	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
14/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
10/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
26/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
12/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
29/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	2-3	3-3	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Lidzbark vs CK Troszyn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Polonia Lidzbark win (40%). Probabilities: Polonia Lidzbark 40%, draw 26%, CK Troszyn 34%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Lidzbark vs CK Troszyn?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Polonia Lidzbark 1.53 · CK Troszyn 1.41), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Lidzbark vs CK Troszyn?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.