Football · Poland III Liga · 15/11, 11:00

Prediction: Korona Kielce II vs Moravia Morawica

Team pages: Korona Kielce II · Moravia Morawica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

Korona Kielce II2.16

Moravia Morawica1.32

1X2

56% 22% 22%

Korona Kielce II Draw Moravia Morawica

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Korona Kielce II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Moravia Morawica 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Korona Kielce II 1473 · Moravia Morawica 1449

	Korona Kielce II	Draw	Moravia Morawica
Our model	56%	22%	22%
Market	56%	21%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Korona Kielce II	Moravia Morawica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.20

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:43 +32’	1.60	4.20	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Korona Kielce II	Moravia Morawica
Star Starachowice	1-4 L	0-3 L
Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4-0 W	4-0 W
Siarka Tarnobrzeg	2-1 W	2-3 L
Wieczysta Krakow II	1-0 W	0-1 L
Wisloka Debica	0-1 L	0-0 D
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	2-2 D	2-2 D
JKS Jaroslaw	2-6 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Korona Kielce II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
29/10	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
24/10	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	3	14	L
10/10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
03/10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
26/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	10	2	W
19/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
12/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
05/09	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	1-3	2-6	5	7	L

Moravia Morawica

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
30/10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	3	6	W
24/10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
17/10	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
10/10	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
27/09	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	8	3	D
19/09	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
05/09	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Korona Kielce II vs Moravia Morawica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Korona Kielce II win (56%). Probabilities: Korona Kielce II 56%, draw 22%, Moravia Morawica 22%.

How many goals are expected in Korona Kielce II vs Moravia Morawica?

The model expects 3.48 goals (Korona Kielce II 2.16 · Moravia Morawica 1.32), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Korona Kielce II vs Moravia Morawica?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.