Football · Poland III Liga · 15/11, 13:00

Prediction: Stal Brzeg vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Team pages: Stal Brzeg · Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Stal Brzeg1.03

Zaglebie Sosnowiec1.74

1X2

22% 24% 54%

Stal Brzeg Draw Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Stal Brzeg 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDWLWD

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stal Brzeg 1483 · Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1601

	Stal Brzeg	Draw	Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Our model	21%	26%	53%
Market	23%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zaglebie Sosnowiec (rating 1483 vs 1601).
High corners: 14.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stal Brzeg	Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.6 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.2 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.3	3.9 / 8.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.90

X4.00

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +28’	3.90	4.00	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stal Brzeg	Zaglebie Sosnowiec
KS Stilon Gorzow	2-2 D	2-0 W
Zaglebie Lubin II	4-1 W	1-0 W
Odra Bytom Odrzanski	2-3 L	1-0 W
Gornik Polkowice	2-0 W	2-1 W
Barycz Sulow	1-1 D	0-1 L
Warta Gorzow	0-1 L	3-0 W
Miedz Legnica II	2-4 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Zaglebie Sosnowiec (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stal Brzeg

LLWLLDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
31/10	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
24/10	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	2-0	2-3	2	4	L
17/10	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
10/10	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
26/09	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-3	3-4	7	5	L
19/09	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
05/09	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	2-3	2-4	–	–	L

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

LWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	14	3	W
31/10	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/10	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	3-0	3-1	17	4	W
17/10	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	8	7	W
14/10	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
10/10	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
03/10	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
18/09	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
12/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stal Brzeg vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Zaglebie Sosnowiec win (54%). Probabilities: Stal Brzeg 22%, draw 24%, Zaglebie Sosnowiec 54%.

How many goals are expected in Stal Brzeg vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Stal Brzeg 1.03 · Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1.74), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Stal Brzeg vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.