Football · Poland III Liga · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Sparta Katowice vs Odra Bytom Odrzanski

Team pages: Sparta Katowice · Odra Bytom Odrzanski

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Sparta Katowice1.75

Odra Bytom Odrzanski0.97

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Sparta Katowice Draw Odra Bytom Odrzanski

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sparta Katowice 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Odra Bytom Odrzanski 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sparta Katowice 1584 · Odra Bytom Odrzanski 1523

	Sparta Katowice	Draw	Odra Bytom Odrzanski
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	56%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sparta Katowice (rating 1584 vs 1523).
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sparta Katowice	Odra Bytom Odrzanski
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.6	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7.8	3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.00

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:11 +5’	1.60	4.00	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sparta Katowice	Odra Bytom Odrzanski
Gornik Polkowice	4-0 W	1-0 W
Barycz Sulow	3-1 W	1-0 W
Carina Gubin	3-1 W	1-1 D
ROW 1964 Rybnik	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Katowice (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sparta Katowice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	3-0	4-0	6	6	W
31/10	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	8	3	W
24/10	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
17/10	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
10/10	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	12	4	D
26/09	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
19/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
13/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
05/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	7	4	W

Odra Bytom Odrzanski

WDWWLDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
31/10	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
24/10	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-2	3-2	4	4	W
17/10	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
10/10	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
03/10	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
26/09	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
18/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	8	W
11/09	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sparta Katowice vs Odra Bytom Odrzanski?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sparta Katowice win (55%). Probabilities: Sparta Katowice 55%, draw 24%, Odra Bytom Odrzanski 21%.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Katowice vs Odra Bytom Odrzanski?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Sparta Katowice 1.75 · Odra Bytom Odrzanski 0.97), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sparta Katowice vs Odra Bytom Odrzanski?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.