Football · Poland III Liga · 15/11, 12:00

Prediction: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Lowicz

Team pages: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki · Pelikan Lowicz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1.52

Pelikan Lowicz1.61

1X2

36% 25% 40%

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Draw Pelikan Lowicz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLDLWL

Pelikan Lowicz 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWLDLL

Head-to-head

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 3–2–1 Pelikan Lowicz (6 last)

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki6-1Pelikan Lowicz
Pelikan Lowicz1-2Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Pelikan Lowicz0-0Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1-0Pelikan Lowicz
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki0-2Pelikan Lowicz
Pelikan Lowicz1-1Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1439 · Pelikan Lowicz 1493

	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	Draw	Pelikan Lowicz
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pelikan Lowicz (rating 1439 vs 1493).
H2H favours Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	Pelikan Lowicz
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.2	1.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.75

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:56 +20’	2.50	3.75	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 3–2–1 Pelikan Lowicz

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/25 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	6-1 HT 2-1	Pelikan Lowicz
17/08/24 Poland III Liga	Pelikan Lowicz	1-2 HT 0-1	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
17/03/24 Poland III Liga	Pelikan Lowicz	0-0 HT 0-0	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
23/08/23 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	1-0 HT 0-0	Pelikan Lowicz
24/05/23 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	0-2 HT 0-0	Pelikan Lowicz
23/10/22 Poland III Liga	Pelikan Lowicz	1-1 HT 0-0	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	16	12	4	0	27	7	40
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	16	8	5	3	27	14	29
3	Hetman Zamosc	16	8	5	3	32	24	29
4	Wisloka Debica	16	9	2	5	25	21	29
5	Czarni Polaniec	16	8	4	4	25	22	28
6	Naprzod Jedrzejow	16	8	3	5	33	31	27
7	Wisla Krakow II	16	7	4	5	21	20	25
8	Wislanie Jaskowice	16	7	3	6	24	18	24
9	Star Starachowice	16	6	5	5	27	24	23
10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	16	7	2	7	25	22	23
11	Wieczysta Krakow II	16	5	4	7	16	19	19
12	JKS Jaroslaw	16	5	3	8	32	30	18
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	16	5	2	9	22	36	17
14	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	16	3	7	6	16	20	16
15	Korona Kielce II	16	4	3	9	31	37	15
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	16	3	4	9	12	27	13
17	Moravia Morawica	16	3	3	10	19	29	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	16	3	3	10	19	32	12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	Pelikan Lowicz
Warta Sieradz	0-3 L	2-2 D
Wigry Suwalki	2-0 W	1-4 L
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	1-3 L	4-1 W
Widzew Lodz II	1-1 D	1-1 D
Olimpia Zambrow	0-3 L	3-1 W
Polonia Lidzbark	1-2 L	1-0 W
Olimpia Elblag	2-1 W	0-1 L
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pelikan Lowicz (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

LLLWLLDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-3	2	6	L
31/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
24/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
18/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
11/10	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
03/10	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
26/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
18/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	11	7	L
11/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-3	2-4	11	6	L
05/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	5	L

Pelikan Lowicz

WLWWDWLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
31/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	8	8	L
24/10	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
17/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	2	5	L
10/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	4	4	W
03/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
26/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	2	7	W
19/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
04/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Lowicz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pelikan Lowicz win (40%). Probabilities: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 36%, draw 25%, Pelikan Lowicz 40%.

How many goals are expected in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Lowicz?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1.52 · Pelikan Lowicz 1.61), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Lowicz?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.