Football · Poland III Liga · 19/08, 17:00

Prediction: CK Troszyn vs Warta Sieradz

Team pages: CK Troszyn · Warta Sieradz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

CK Troszyn1.11

Warta Sieradz1.72

1X2

24% 25% 51%

CK Troszyn Draw Warta Sieradz

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CK Troszyn 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLLLLL

Warta Sieradz 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDWWWLWD

Head-to-head

CK Troszyn 1–1–0 Warta Sieradz (2 last)

Warta Sieradz1-2CK Troszyn
CK Troszyn0-0Warta Sieradz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CK Troszyn 1461 · Warta Sieradz 1529

	CK Troszyn	Draw	Warta Sieradz
Our model	23%	26%	50%
Market	25%	23%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warta Sieradz (rating 1461 vs 1529).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CK Troszyn	Warta Sieradz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.2	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.6	3.6 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.80

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:22 +23’	3.60	3.80	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CK Troszyn 1–1–0 Warta Sieradz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	1-2 HT 1-2	CK Troszyn
20/09/25 Poland III Liga	CK Troszyn	0-0 HT 0-0	Warta Sieradz

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	3	3	0	0	6	0	9
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	3	3	0	0	6	1	9
3	Wisloka Debica	3	2	1	0	6	3	7
4	KSZO Ostrowiec	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
5	Wisla Krakow II	3	2	0	1	7	5	6
6	Czarni Polaniec	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
7	Naprzod Jedrzejow	3	2	0	1	7	7	6
8	Hetman Zamosc	3	1	2	0	5	2	5
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
11	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	3	1	1	1	5	6	4
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
13	Moravia Morawica	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
14	JKS Jaroslaw	3	0	1	2	4	7	1
15	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	3	0	1	2	3	6	1
16	Star Starachowice	3	0	1	2	2	7	1
17	Korona Kielce II	3	0	0	3	7	10	0
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	3	0	0	3	1	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CK Troszyn	Warta Sieradz
Wigry Suwalki	0-1 L	2-1 W
GKS Wikielec	1-2 L	1-1 D
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	1-0 W	2-2 D
Bron Radom	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Warta Sieradz (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

CK Troszyn

WDWWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
08/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-4	1-4	1	1	L
02/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-3	1-5	4	6	L
15/07	KTS Weszlo Club Friendly List	1-1	2-6	–	–	L
30/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
17/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
13/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	4-1	7	2	W
08/05	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
30/04	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	5	1	W

Warta Sieradz

DWDDWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
09/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
01/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
08/07	LKS Lodz II Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
30/05	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
22/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	10	6	W
17/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
09/05	KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
30/04	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-3	3-3	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CK Troszyn vs Warta Sieradz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Warta Sieradz win (51%). Probabilities: CK Troszyn 24%, draw 25%, Warta Sieradz 51%.

How many goals are expected in CK Troszyn vs Warta Sieradz?

The model expects 2.83 goals (CK Troszyn 1.11 · Warta Sieradz 1.72), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CK Troszyn vs Warta Sieradz?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.