Football · Poland III Liga · 14/10, 18:00

Prediction: LKS Lodz II vs Zabkovia Zabki

Team pages: LKS Lodz II · Zabkovia Zabki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

LKS Lodz II2.01

Zabkovia Zabki1.8

1X2

43% 23% 34%

LKS Lodz II Draw Zabkovia Zabki

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

LKS Lodz II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLWWDWDW

Zabkovia Zabki 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLWWLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LKS Lodz II 1523 · Zabkovia Zabki 1524

	LKS Lodz II	Draw	Zabkovia Zabki
Our model	43%	23%	34%
Market	43%	23%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LKS Lodz II	Zabkovia Zabki
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.9	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.3	4.3 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.90

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:52 +16’	2.10	3.90	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LKS Lodz II	Zabkovia Zabki
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	3-2 W	2-2 D
Mlawianka Mlawa	2-0 W	3-4 L
LKS Lomza	4-3 W	2-0 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	3-4 L	4-2 W
KTS Weszlo	0-2 L	0-2 L
Pelikan Lowicz	1-2 L	2-1 W
Warta Sieradz	0-1 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Zabkovia Zabki (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LKS Lodz II

LLLLWWDWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-1	7-2	6	1	W
26/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
12/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	8	7	D
06/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
30/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-3	4-3	9	3	W
23/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	3-4	9	5	L
19/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
15/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
09/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	7	7	L

Zabkovia Zabki

WLDWWLWWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-3	3-4	6	5	L
18/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	10	6	W
11/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	6	6	W
05/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
29/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
22/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	4-0	12	2	W
19/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
14/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-3	1	1	L
08/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LKS Lodz II vs Zabkovia Zabki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LKS Lodz II win (43%). Probabilities: LKS Lodz II 43%, draw 23%, Zabkovia Zabki 34%.

How many goals are expected in LKS Lodz II vs Zabkovia Zabki?

The model expects 3.81 goals (LKS Lodz II 2.01 · Zabkovia Zabki 1.8), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in LKS Lodz II vs Zabkovia Zabki?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.