Football · Poland III Liga · 07/11, 14:00

Prediction: Olimpia Elblag vs Zabkovia Zabki

Team pages: Olimpia Elblag · Zabkovia Zabki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Olimpia Elblag1.49

Zabkovia Zabki1.75

1X2

32% 24% 43%

Olimpia Elblag Draw Zabkovia Zabki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpia Elblag 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWWDDL

Zabkovia Zabki 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDWDDW

Head-to-head

Olimpia Elblag 2–0 Zabkovia Zabki (2 last)

Olimpia Elblag3-1Zabkovia Zabki
Zabkovia Zabki2-3Olimpia Elblag

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpia Elblag 1470 · Zabkovia Zabki 1550

	Olimpia Elblag	Draw	Zabkovia Zabki
Our model	32%	25%	43%
Market	33%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zabkovia Zabki (rating 1470 vs 1550).
H2H favours Olimpia Elblag: 2-0-0.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpia Elblag	Zabkovia Zabki
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.3	3.4 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	5.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.75

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:09 +15’	2.75	3.75	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia Elblag 2–0–0 Zabkovia Zabki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Poland III Liga	Olimpia Elblag	3-1 HT 2-0	Zabkovia Zabki
15/08/25 Poland III Liga	Zabkovia Zabki	2-3 HT 0-2	Olimpia Elblag

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpia Elblag	Zabkovia Zabki
CK Troszyn	0-2 L	1-1 D
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	0-0 D	2-2 D
LKS Lodz II	1-1 D	3-0 W
Mlawianka Mlawa	2-1 W	3-4 L
LKS Lomza	2-0 W	2-0 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	1-2 L	4-2 W
KTS Weszlo	1-2 L	0-2 L
Pelikan Lowicz	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Zabkovia Zabki (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olimpia Elblag

LLWLLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
24/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/10	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
10/10	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
03/10	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	11	1	W
26/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
19/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
12/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
04/09	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	1	2	L
29/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	7	3	L

Zabkovia Zabki

WLWWLDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	4	11	W
24/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	2-2	2-2	8	7	D
18/10	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
14/10	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	9	5	W
10/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-3	3-4	6	5	L
18/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	10	6	W
11/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	6	6	W
05/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
29/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	8	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpia Elblag vs Zabkovia Zabki?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Zabkovia Zabki win (43%). Probabilities: Olimpia Elblag 32%, draw 24%, Zabkovia Zabki 43%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpia Elblag vs Zabkovia Zabki?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Olimpia Elblag 1.49 · Zabkovia Zabki 1.75), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpia Elblag vs Zabkovia Zabki?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.