Football · Poland III Liga · 07/08, 17:00
Prediction: Olimpia Elblag vs Polonia Lidzbark
Team pages: Olimpia Elblag · Polonia Lidzbark
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Olimpia Elblag1.55
Polonia Lidzbark1.29
1X2
Olimpia Elblag
Draw
Polonia Lidzbark
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Olimpia Elblag
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Polonia Lidzbark
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Olimpia Elblag
1–2–1
Polonia Lidzbark
(4 last)
- Polonia Lidzbark0-2Olimpia Elblag
- Polonia Lidzbark1-1Olimpia Elblag
- Olimpia Elblag0-0Polonia Lidzbark
- Polonia Lidzbark2-1Olimpia Elblag
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Olimpia Elblag 1466 · Polonia Lidzbark 1536
| Olimpia Elblag | Draw | Polonia Lidzbark | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 44% | 24% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Lidzbark (rating 1466 vs 1536).
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Olimpia Elblag | Polonia Lidzbark | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.5 | 2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.8 | 3.4 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia Elblag 1–2–1 Polonia Lidzbark
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/26 Europe Friendlies | Polonia Lidzbark | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Olimpia Elblag |
| 19/07/25 Europe Friendlies | Polonia Lidzbark | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Olimpia Elblag |
| 25/01/25 Europe Friendlies | Olimpia Elblag | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Polonia Lidzbark |
| 14/07/24 Europe Friendlies | Polonia Lidzbark | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Olimpia Elblag |
Standings · Poland III Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wisla Krakow II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Czarni Polaniec | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Wislanie Jaskowice | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Naprzod Jedrzejow | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Chelmianka Chelm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | KSZO Ostrowiec | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | JKS Jaroslaw | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Hetman Zamosc | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Wisloka Debica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Korona Kielce II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 | Podlasie Biala Podlaska | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Pogon Sokol Lubaczow | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Star Starachowice | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Wieczysta Krakow II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Moravia Morawica | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Olimpia Elblag
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/07 | Wda Swiecie Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 15/07 | Polonia Lidzbark Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Gedania Gdansk Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 07/07 | Chojniczanka Chojnice Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga |
2-3 | 2-3 | 7 | 12 | L |
| 17/05 | Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga |
0-3 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
Polonia Lidzbark
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 15/07 | Olimpia Elblag Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 13/06 | Granica Ketrzyn Poland IV Liga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 06/06 | Sokol Ostroda Poland IV Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Stomil Olsztyn Poland IV Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Mragowia Mragowo Poland IV Liga |
0-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 06/05 | Pisa Barczewo Poland IV Liga |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | DKS Dobre Miasto Poland IV Liga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 25/10 | Stomil Olsztyn Poland IV Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Start Nidzica Poland IV Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 19 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Olimpia Elblag vs Polonia Lidzbark?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpia Elblag win (43%). Probabilities: Olimpia Elblag 43%, draw 26%, Polonia Lidzbark 31%.
How many goals are expected in Olimpia Elblag vs Polonia Lidzbark?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Olimpia Elblag 1.55 · Polonia Lidzbark 1.29), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Olimpia Elblag vs Polonia Lidzbark?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.