Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 15:00

Prediction: Pelikan Lowicz vs Wigry Suwalki

Team pages: Pelikan Lowicz · Wigry Suwalki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Pelikan Lowicz1.44

Wigry Suwalki1.48

1X2

36% 26% 38%

Pelikan Lowicz Draw Wigry Suwalki

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Pelikan Lowicz 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLWWDW

Wigry Suwalki 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWLDWWWW

Head-to-head

Pelikan Lowicz 1–1 Wigry Suwalki (2 last)

Pelikan Lowicz1-0Wigry Suwalki
Wigry Suwalki2-1Pelikan Lowicz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pelikan Lowicz 1533 · Wigry Suwalki 1547

	Pelikan Lowicz	Draw	Wigry Suwalki
Our model	36%	27%	37%
Market	37%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pelikan Lowicz	Wigry Suwalki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.8	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.60

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:12 +34’	2.45	3.60	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pelikan Lowicz 1–0–1 Wigry Suwalki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/25 Poland III Liga	Pelikan Lowicz	1-0 HT 0-0	Wigry Suwalki
14/09/24 Poland III Liga	Wigry Suwalki	2-1 HT 0-1	Pelikan Lowicz

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pelikan Lowicz	Wigry Suwalki
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	4-1 W	2-0 W
Widzew Lodz II	1-1 D	6-3 W
Olimpia Zambrow	3-1 W	1-1 D
Polonia Lidzbark	1-0 W	1-3 L
Olimpia Elblag	0-1 L	3-1 W
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	4-1 W	0-0 D
Zabkovia Zabki	1-2 L	1-1 D
CK Troszyn	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pelikan Lowicz

WLDLWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	4	4	W
03/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
26/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	2	7	W
19/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
04/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
29/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
23/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
19/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
15/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	10	5	W

Wigry Suwalki

WDDWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	3-1	3-1	4	5	W
03/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
26/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	7	3	W
20/09	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	3-2	6-3	–	–	W
12/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
06/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	8	1	L
29/08	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	6	3	W
23/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
14/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pelikan Lowicz vs Wigry Suwalki?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Wigry Suwalki win (38%). Probabilities: Pelikan Lowicz 36%, draw 26%, Wigry Suwalki 38%.

How many goals are expected in Pelikan Lowicz vs Wigry Suwalki?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Pelikan Lowicz 1.44 · Wigry Suwalki 1.48), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pelikan Lowicz vs Wigry Suwalki?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.