Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 15:00

Prediction: Mlawianka Mlawa vs Polonia Lidzbark

Team pages: Mlawianka Mlawa · Polonia Lidzbark

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

Mlawianka Mlawa2.14

Polonia Lidzbark1.87

1X2

44% 23% 33%

Mlawianka Mlawa Draw Polonia Lidzbark

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Mlawianka Mlawa 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWWLL

Polonia Lidzbark 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDWLLDWW

Head-to-head

Mlawianka Mlawa 2–1–0 Polonia Lidzbark (3 last)

Mlawianka Mlawa3-0Polonia Lidzbark
Mlawianka Mlawa1-1Polonia Lidzbark
Polonia Lidzbark2-4Mlawianka Mlawa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mlawianka Mlawa 1451 · Polonia Lidzbark 1504

	Mlawianka Mlawa	Draw	Polonia Lidzbark
Our model	44%	22%	34%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Lidzbark (rating 1451 vs 1504).
H2H favours Mlawianka Mlawa: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mlawianka Mlawa	Polonia Lidzbark
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 3.2	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.7	1.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.75

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:26 +7’	2.05	3.75	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mlawianka Mlawa 2–1–0 Polonia Lidzbark

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Mlawianka Mlawa	3-0 HT 1-0	Polonia Lidzbark
22/03/25 Poland III Liga	Mlawianka Mlawa	1-1 HT 1-0	Polonia Lidzbark
25/08/24 Poland III Liga	Polonia Lidzbark	2-4 HT 1-1	Mlawianka Mlawa

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mlawianka Mlawa	Polonia Lidzbark
Wisla Plock II	3-5 L	1-1 D
LKS Lomza	0-0 D	3-2 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-3 L	2-1 W
KTS Weszlo	1-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Polonia Lidzbark (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mlawianka Mlawa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-4	–	–	L
25/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	3-0	4-3	8	5	W
19/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
12/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	2-2	4-7	1	5	L
06/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
29/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-3	3-5	8	7	L
22/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
19/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	14	6	L
14/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-2	1-5	5	5	L

Polonia Lidzbark

DLLDWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
03/10	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
26/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
12/09	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
06/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	5	1	W
29/08	Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
23/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-3	1-4	3	6	L
19/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mlawianka Mlawa vs Polonia Lidzbark?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mlawianka Mlawa win (44%). Probabilities: Mlawianka Mlawa 44%, draw 23%, Polonia Lidzbark 33%.

How many goals are expected in Mlawianka Mlawa vs Polonia Lidzbark?

The model expects 4.01 goals (Mlawianka Mlawa 2.14 · Polonia Lidzbark 1.87), with a 57% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mlawianka Mlawa vs Polonia Lidzbark?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.