Football · Poland III Liga · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Wisla Plock II vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Team pages: Wisla Plock II · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Wisla Plock II1.73

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1.73

1X2

38% 24% 38%

Wisla Plock II Draw MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Wisla Plock II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLWLWLDW

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWLWWL

Head-to-head

Wisla Plock II 1–3–0 MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki (4 last)

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki2-3Wisla Plock II
Wisla Plock II1-1MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
Wisla Plock II0-0MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki2-2Wisla Plock II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wisla Plock II 1524 · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1513

	Wisla Plock II	Draw	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
Our model	38%	24%	38%
Market	38%	24%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wisla Plock II	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	2.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.75

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +4’	2.35	3.75	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wisla Plock II 1–3–0 MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	2-3 HT 0-2	Wisla Plock II
09/11/25 Poland III Liga	Wisla Plock II	1-1 HT 1-0	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
31/05/25 Poland III Liga	Wisla Plock II	0-0 HT 0-0	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
09/11/24 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	2-2 HT 1-1	Wisla Plock II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wisla Plock II	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
Pelikan Lowicz	2-1 W	1-4 L
Zabkovia Zabki	2-2 D	0-2 L
Warta Sieradz	1-2 L	2-1 W
CK Troszyn	2-1 W	3-0 W
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	2-1 W	3-1 W
LKS Lodz II	2-2 D	2-7 L
Mlawianka Mlawa	5-3 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wisla Plock II

WWDLWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	8	8	W
24/10	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	2-2	2-2	5	7	D
17/10	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
10/10	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
03/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
25/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
19/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
12/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-2	2	7	D
06/09	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
29/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	3-0	5-3	5	7	W

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

WLLWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	4	11	L
24/10	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
18/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
10/10	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-7	7	1	L
03/10	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	4-2	–	–	W
25/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	7	3	W
18/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	2	7	W
12/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
04/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	6	5	L
29/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wisla Plock II vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wisla Plock II win (38%). Probabilities: Wisla Plock II 38%, draw 24%, MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 38%.

How many goals are expected in Wisla Plock II vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Wisla Plock II 1.73 · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1.73), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Wisla Plock II vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.