Football · Poland III Liga · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Mlawianka Mlawa

Team pages: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · Mlawianka Mlawa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.19Total

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki2.51

Mlawianka Mlawa1.68

1X2

55% 21% 24%

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Draw Mlawianka Mlawa

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Mlawianka Mlawa 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1518 · Mlawianka Mlawa 1457

	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	Draw	Mlawianka Mlawa
Our model	55%	20%	25%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 4.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (rating 1518 vs 1457).
High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	Mlawianka Mlawa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.9	2.3 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.3 / 8.8	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.10

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 1.3 · xG: 4.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:29 +44’	1.65	4.10	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	Mlawianka Mlawa
Wisla Plock II	3-2 W	3-5 L
Widzew Lodz II	3-2 W	1-4 L
Olimpia Zambrow	5-0 W	1-1 D
Polonia Lidzbark	2-2 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	6	3	W
24/10	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
18/10	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	10	4	L
10/10	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	8	4	L
03/10	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
26/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	11	3	L
19/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	4	5	W
11/09	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-1	3-2	9	2	W
05/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-0	5-0	17	2	W
29/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D

Mlawianka Mlawa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-4	–	–	L
24/10	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	2-0	3-2	7	7	W
10/10	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-4	–	–	L
25/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	3-0	4-3	8	5	W
19/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
12/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	2-2	4-7	1	5	L
06/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
29/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-3	3-5	8	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win (55%). Probabilities: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 55%, draw 21%, Mlawianka Mlawa 24%.

How many goals are expected in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

The model expects 4.19 goals (Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 2.51 · Mlawianka Mlawa 1.68), with a 56% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.