Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 15:00

Prediction: LKS Lomza vs Olimpia Zambrow

Team pages: LKS Lomza · Olimpia Zambrow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

LKS Lomza1.61

Olimpia Zambrow1.98

1X2

31% 24% 46%

LKS Lomza Draw Olimpia Zambrow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

LKS Lomza 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LDDLLDLLLL

Olimpia Zambrow 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDDLWW

Head-to-head

LKS Lomza 1–1–2 Olimpia Zambrow (4 last)

Olimpia Zambrow0-1LKS Lomza
LKS Lomza0-0Olimpia Zambrow
LKS Lomza0-5Olimpia Zambrow
Olimpia Zambrow4-1LKS Lomza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LKS Lomza 1409 · Olimpia Zambrow 1505

	LKS Lomza	Draw	Olimpia Zambrow
Our model	31%	23%	46%
Market	31%	24%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpia Zambrow (rating 1409 vs 1505).
H2H favours Olimpia Zambrow: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LKS Lomza	Olimpia Zambrow
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.4	2.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/0/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.75

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:37 +10’	2.90	3.75	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · LKS Lomza 1–1–2 Olimpia Zambrow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/24 Poland III Liga	Olimpia Zambrow	0-1 HT 0-0	LKS Lomza
29/09/23 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	0-0 HT 0-0	Olimpia Zambrow
19/06/19 Poland III Liga	LKS Lomza	0-5 HT 0-0	Olimpia Zambrow
24/11/18 Poland III Liga	Olimpia Zambrow	4-1 HT 2-1	LKS Lomza

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LKS Lomza	Olimpia Zambrow
Polonia Lidzbark	2-3 L	3-2 W
Olimpia Elblag	0-2 L	1-2 L
Wisla Plock II	1-1 D	4-3 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-5 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpia Zambrow (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LKS Lomza

LDDLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
03/10	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
25/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
18/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
12/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
30/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	3-1	3-4	6	3	L
22/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
19/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	10	D
14/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-4	2-5	4	1	L

Olimpia Zambrow

LWWLLDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	10	4	W
03/10	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
26/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	9	7	L
19/09	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-2	2-2	5	4	D
12/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
05/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	0-5	0	2	L
30/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-2	3-4	3	3	L
23/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	2-1	4-3	2	3	W
19/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LKS Lomza vs Olimpia Zambrow?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Olimpia Zambrow win (46%). Probabilities: LKS Lomza 31%, draw 24%, Olimpia Zambrow 46%.

How many goals are expected in LKS Lomza vs Olimpia Zambrow?

The model expects 3.6 goals (LKS Lomza 1.61 · Olimpia Zambrow 1.98), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in LKS Lomza vs Olimpia Zambrow?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.