Football · Poland III Liga · 19/08, 17:00
Prediction: Mlawianka Mlawa vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Team pages: Mlawianka Mlawa · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.46Total
Mlawianka Mlawa1.88
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1.57
1X2
Mlawianka Mlawa
Draw
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Mlawianka Mlawa
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mlawianka Mlawa
4–1–1
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
(6 last)
- Mlawianka Mlawa3-1Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
- Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1-3Mlawianka Mlawa
- Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki3-3Mlawianka Mlawa
- Mlawianka Mlawa2-0Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
- Mlawianka Mlawa2-1Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
- Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki2-1Mlawianka Mlawa
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mlawianka Mlawa 1518 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1468
| Mlawianka Mlawa | Draw | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Market | 44% | 24% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mlawianka Mlawa (rating 1518 vs 1468).
- H2H favours Mlawianka Mlawa: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mlawianka Mlawa | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.7 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 7 | 3.8 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mlawianka Mlawa 4–1–1 Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Poland III Liga | Mlawianka Mlawa | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki |
| 07/11/25 Poland III Liga | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Mlawianka Mlawa |
| 21/05/25 Poland III Liga | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Mlawianka Mlawa |
| 26/10/24 Poland III Liga | Mlawianka Mlawa | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki |
| 27/04/24 Poland III Liga | Mlawianka Mlawa | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki |
| 30/09/23 Poland III Liga | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Mlawianka Mlawa |
Standings · Poland III Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelmianka Chelm | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Wislanie Jaskowice | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Wisloka Debica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | KSZO Ostrowiec | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Czarni Polaniec | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Naprzod Jedrzejow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Podlasie Biala Podlaska | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | Wieczysta Krakow II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | Moravia Morawica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | JKS Jaroslaw | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 15 | Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 16 | Star Starachowice | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 17 | Korona Kielce II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 | Pogon Sokol Lubaczow | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mlawianka Mlawa | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki |
|---|---|---|
| KTS Weszlo | 1-5 L | 1-2 L |
| LKS Lomza | 1-2 L | 5-2 W |
| Wigry Suwalki | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mlawianka Mlawa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Hutnik Warsaw Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | LKS Lomza Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 01/05 | Bron Radom Poland III Liga |
2-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 5 | W |
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | LKS Lomza Poland III Liga |
4-0 | 5-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 31/07 | KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 13/05 | CK Troszyn Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mlawianka Mlawa vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mlawianka Mlawa win (44%). Probabilities: Mlawianka Mlawa 44%, draw 24%, Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 32%.
How many goals are expected in Mlawianka Mlawa vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?
The model expects 3.46 goals (Mlawianka Mlawa 1.88 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1.57), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Mlawianka Mlawa vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.