Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Team pages: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki2.24

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1.46

1X2

54% 22% 24%

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Draw Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWLDLL

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLWLLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1504 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1461

	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	Draw	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (rating 1504 vs 1461).
High corners: 15 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.9	1.5 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.4 / 8.9	2.6 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.00

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +8’	1.65	4.00	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Widzew Lodz II	3-2 W	1-1 D
Olimpia Zambrow	5-0 W	0-3 L
Polonia Lidzbark	2-2 D	1-2 L
Olimpia Elblag	2-2 D	2-1 W
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

WDDWWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	10	4	L
10/10	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	8	4	L
03/10	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
26/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	11	3	L
19/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	4	5	W
11/09	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-1	3-2	9	2	W
05/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-0	5-0	17	2	W
29/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
19/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

WWDLLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
11/10	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
03/10	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
26/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
18/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	11	7	L
11/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-3	2-4	11	6	L
05/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
29/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
23/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	4-3	2	5	W
19/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win (54%). Probabilities: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 54%, draw 22%, Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 24%.

How many goals are expected in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model expects 3.7 goals (Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 2.24 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1.46), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.