Football · Poland III Liga · 06/11, 19:00

Prediction: Warta Sieradz vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Team pages: Warta Sieradz · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Warta Sieradz1.9

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1.23

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Warta Sieradz Draw Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Warta Sieradz 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDLWWDW

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLLDLW

Head-to-head

Warta Sieradz 4–1–1 Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki (6 last)

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1-1Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz2-1Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Warta Sieradz4-0Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1-0Warta Sieradz
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki0-1Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz3-1Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warta Sieradz 1536 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1453

	Warta Sieradz	Draw	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warta Sieradz (rating 1536 vs 1453).
H2H favours Warta Sieradz: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warta Sieradz	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.7	2.9 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:01 +5’	1.70	3.90	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Sieradz 4–1–1 Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	1-1 HT 1-1	Warta Sieradz
27/08/25 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	2-1 HT 1-1	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
03/05/25 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	4-0 HT 2-0	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
05/10/24 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	1-0 HT 0-0	Warta Sieradz
06/04/24 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	0-1 HT 0-1	Warta Sieradz
09/09/23 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	3-1 HT 2-0	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warta Sieradz	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Widzew Lodz II	1-0 W	1-1 D
Wigry Suwalki	1-3 L	2-0 W
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	1-1 D	1-3 L
Olimpia Zambrow	2-2 D	0-3 L
Polonia Lidzbark	2-1 W	1-2 L
Olimpia Elblag	4-1 W	2-1 W
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Warta Sieradz (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warta Sieradz

LWWDDLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
24/10	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
21/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
17/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
09/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
03/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
19/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
12/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	8	8	W
04/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	6	2	W
29/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

DLLLWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
24/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
18/10	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
11/10	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
03/10	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
26/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
18/09	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	11	7	L
11/09	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-3	2-4	11	6	L
05/09	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
29/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warta Sieradz vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Warta Sieradz win (52%). Probabilities: Warta Sieradz 52%, draw 24%, Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 24%.

How many goals are expected in Warta Sieradz vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Warta Sieradz 1.9 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1.23), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Warta Sieradz vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.