Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 12:00

Prediction: Zaglebie Lubin II vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Team pages: Zaglebie Lubin II · Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Zaglebie Lubin II1.52

Zaglebie Sosnowiec1.42

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Zaglebie Lubin II Draw Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Lubin II 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

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Zaglebie Sosnowiec 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Zaglebie Lubin II 0–1–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec (2 last)

Zaglebie Sosnowiec3-1Zaglebie Lubin II
Zaglebie Lubin II0-0Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Lubin II 1561 · Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1559

	Zaglebie Lubin II	Draw	Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Lubin II	Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	2.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:52 +44’	2.25	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaglebie Lubin II 0–1–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/25 Poland II Liga	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	3-1 HT 1-0	Zaglebie Lubin II
11/08/24 Poland II Liga	Zaglebie Lubin II	0-0 HT 0-0	Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Lubin II	Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Odra Bytom Odrzanski	1-1 D	1-0 W
Gornik Polkowice	1-1 D	2-1 W
Barycz Sulow	3-3 D	0-1 L
Carina Gubin	3-0 W	4-0 W
ROW 1964 Rybnik	2-2 D	1-4 L
MKS Kluczbork	3-1 W	1-0 W
Rakow Czestochowa II	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 0 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Zaglebie Sosnowiec (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaglebie Lubin II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
02/10	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
26/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	1-2	3-3	4	3	D
18/09	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	5	0	W
12/09	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
05/09	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
29/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
22/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W
19/08	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
16/08	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	6	7	D

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
10/10	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
03/10	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
18/09	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
12/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
22/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
19/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	8	2	W
16/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zaglebie Lubin II win (39%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin II 39%, draw 26%, Zaglebie Sosnowiec 35%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Zaglebie Lubin II 1.52 · Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1.42), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.