Football · Poland III Liga · 23/10, 17:00

Prediction: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Miedz Legnica II

Team pages: Zaglebie Sosnowiec · Miedz Legnica II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Zaglebie Sosnowiec1.83

Miedz Legnica II1.17

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec Draw Miedz Legnica II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Miedz Legnica II 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1585 · Miedz Legnica II 1517

	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	Draw	Miedz Legnica II
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zaglebie Sosnowiec (rating 1585 vs 1517).
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	Miedz Legnica II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.5	2.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	1.1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.9	2.9 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.70▲	Pinn 1.78 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.80 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +4’	1.67	3.90	3.80
22:19 +10’	1.70▲	3.90	3.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:11 +52’	1.78	3.56	3.51

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Sosnowiec	Miedz Legnica II
Zaglebie Lubin II	1-0 W	2-3 L
Rakow Czestochowa II	1-0 W	2-1 W
MKS Kluczbork	1-0 W	0-2 L
Odra Bytom Odrzanski	1-0 W	0-1 L
Polonia Nysa	2-1 W	2-1 W
Sparta Katowice	0-1 L	0-2 L
Sleza Wroclaw	3-1 W	5-3 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Zaglebie Sosnowiec (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	8	7	W
14/10	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
10/10	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
03/10	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
18/09	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
12/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
22/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
19/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	8	2	W

Miedz Legnica II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
10/10	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	10	5	W
02/10	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
26/09	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
19/09	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	2-3	5-3	10	6	W
12/09	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	3-0	5-0	5	2	W
05/09	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	3-2	4-2	–	–	W
28/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	8	5	D
22/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	1-3	2-3	3	7	L
19/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Miedz Legnica II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zaglebie Sosnowiec win (52%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 52%, draw 24%, Miedz Legnica II 24%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Miedz Legnica II?

The model expects 3 goals (Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1.83 · Miedz Legnica II 1.17), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Miedz Legnica II?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.