Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: Gornik Polkowice vs LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj

Team pages: Gornik Polkowice · LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Gornik Polkowice1.45

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj1.11

1X2

45% 26% 29%

Gornik Polkowice Draw LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Gornik Polkowice 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLLDWL

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWLLDW

Head-to-head

Gornik Polkowice 0–3–3 LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj (6 last)

Gornik Polkowice0-0LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj0-0Gornik Polkowice
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj2-1Gornik Polkowice
Gornik Polkowice0-0LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj2-1Gornik Polkowice
Gornik Polkowice1-2LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gornik Polkowice 1484 · LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 1501

	Gornik Polkowice	Draw	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
Our model	44%	29%	28%
Market	46%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj: 3-3-0.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gornik Polkowice	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.4 / 7.4	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +9’	1.95	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gornik Polkowice 0–3–3 LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	0-0 HT 0-0	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
27/09/25 Poland III Liga	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	0-0 HT 0-0	Gornik Polkowice
26/04/25 Poland III Liga	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-1 HT 1-1	Gornik Polkowice
28/09/24 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	0-0 HT 0-0	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
23/03/24 Poland III Liga	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-1 HT 1-0	Gornik Polkowice
27/08/23 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	1-2 HT 1-2	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gornik Polkowice	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj
Barycz Sulow	1-2 L	3-1 W
Carina Gubin	2-1 W	0-0 D
ROW 1964 Rybnik	3-1 W	0-1 L
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	2-1 W	0-2 L
Warta Gorzow	0-0 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gornik Polkowice (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gornik Polkowice

DWWWLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
09/10	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	9	3	W
02/10	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
26/09	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	12	5	L
18/09	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
12/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
06/09	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
29/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	5	3	W
23/08	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	7	1	W
19/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj

LWDWLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	8	9	W
10/10	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
26/09	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
19/09	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	2	6	W
12/09	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-3	0-5	10	2	L
05/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	1	8	W
29/08	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
22/08	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gornik Polkowice vs LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gornik Polkowice win (45%). Probabilities: Gornik Polkowice 45%, draw 26%, LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 29%.

How many goals are expected in Gornik Polkowice vs LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Gornik Polkowice 1.45 · LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 1.11), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gornik Polkowice vs LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.