Football · Poland III Liga · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Gornik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice

Team pages: Gornik Polkowice · Sparta Katowice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Gornik Polkowice1.44

Sparta Katowice1.49

1X2

36% 25% 38%

Gornik Polkowice Draw Sparta Katowice

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gornik Polkowice 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Sparta Katowice 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDLWWW

Head-to-head

Gornik Polkowice 0–2 Sparta Katowice (2 last)

Gornik Polkowice0-4Sparta Katowice
Sparta Katowice2-0Gornik Polkowice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gornik Polkowice 1478 · Sparta Katowice 1586

	Gornik Polkowice	Draw	Sparta Katowice
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	37%	24%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sparta Katowice (rating 1478 vs 1586).
H2H favours Sparta Katowice: 2-0-0.
High corners: 15.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gornik Polkowice	Sparta Katowice
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.5 / 7.9	3.6 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.70

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:16 +3’	2.45	3.70	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gornik Polkowice 0–0–2 Sparta Katowice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Poland III Liga	Gornik Polkowice	0-4 HT 0-0	Sparta Katowice
27/08/25 Poland III Liga	Sparta Katowice	2-0 HT 0-0	Gornik Polkowice

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	15	11	4	0	25	6	37
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	15	8	5	2	27	13	29
3	Wisloka Debica	15	9	2	4	23	17	29
4	Hetman Zamosc	15	7	5	3	28	22	26
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	15	7	4	4	31	28	25
6	Czarni Polaniec	15	7	4	4	22	20	25
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
8	Wisla Krakow II	15	6	4	5	20	20	22
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	15	6	3	6	23	22	21
10	Star Starachowice	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	JKS Jaroslaw	15	5	3	7	31	28	18
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	15	3	7	5	14	17	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	15	4	4	7	15	19	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	15	4	2	9	20	35	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	15	3	4	8	11	24	13
17	Moravia Morawica	15	3	3	9	19	26	12
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	15	3	2	10	17	30	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gornik Polkowice	Sparta Katowice
Zaglebie Sosnowiec	1-2 L	1-0 W
Barycz Sulow	1-2 L	3-1 W
Carina Gubin	2-1 W	3-1 W
ROW 1964 Rybnik	3-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Katowice (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gornik Polkowice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	11	3	W
17/10	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
09/10	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	9	3	W
02/10	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
26/09	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	12	5	L
18/09	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	8	4	L
12/09	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
06/09	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
29/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	5	3	W

Sparta Katowice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	8	3	W
24/10	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
17/10	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
10/10	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	12	4	D
26/09	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
19/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
13/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
05/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	7	4	W
29/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gornik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sparta Katowice win (38%). Probabilities: Gornik Polkowice 36%, draw 25%, Sparta Katowice 38%.

How many goals are expected in Gornik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Gornik Polkowice 1.44 · Sparta Katowice 1.49), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gornik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.