Football · Poland III Liga · 19/08, 17:00
Prediction: Warta Gorzow vs Gornik Polkowice
Team pages: Warta Gorzow · Gornik Polkowice
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
Warta Gorzow1.54
Gornik Polkowice1.69
1X2
Warta Gorzow
Draw
Gornik Polkowice
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Warta Gorzow
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Gornik Polkowice
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Warta Gorzow
1–3–2
Gornik Polkowice
(6 last)
- Gornik Polkowice0-1Warta Gorzow
- Warta Gorzow1-1Gornik Polkowice
- Gornik Polkowice2-2Warta Gorzow
- Gornik Polkowice2-2Warta Gorzow
- Gornik Polkowice1-0Warta Gorzow
- Warta Gorzow0-3Gornik Polkowice
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Warta Gorzow 1491 · Gornik Polkowice 1511
| Warta Gorzow | Draw | Gornik Polkowice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 25% | 40% |
| Market | 34% | 25% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Gornik Polkowice: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Warta Gorzow | Gornik Polkowice | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.7 | 2 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3 | 2.1 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Gorzow 1–3–2 Gornik Polkowice
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/26 Europe Friendlies | Gornik Polkowice | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Warta Gorzow |
| 04/04/26 Poland III Liga | Warta Gorzow | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Gornik Polkowice |
| 10/02/26 Club Friendly List | Gornik Polkowice | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Warta Gorzow |
| 12/09/25 Poland III Liga | Gornik Polkowice | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Warta Gorzow |
| 16/05/25 Poland III Liga | Gornik Polkowice | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Warta Gorzow |
| 19/10/24 Poland III Liga | Warta Gorzow | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Gornik Polkowice |
Standings · Poland III Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelmianka Chelm | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Wislanie Jaskowice | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Wisloka Debica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | KSZO Ostrowiec | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Czarni Polaniec | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Naprzod Jedrzejow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Podlasie Biala Podlaska | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 12 | Wieczysta Krakow II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | Moravia Morawica | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | JKS Jaroslaw | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| 15 | Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 16 | Star Starachowice | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 17 | Korona Kielce II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 | Pogon Sokol Lubaczow | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Warta Gorzow
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 08/08 | Carina Gubin Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga |
0-2 | 1-5 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Kluczevia Stargard Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 08/07 | Gornik Polkowice Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 05/07 | Flota Swinoujscie Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | Pniowek Pawlowice Slaskie Poland III Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
Gornik Polkowice
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 31/07 | Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga |
2-1 | 5-4 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Warta Poznan Europe Friendlies |
3-2 | 4-3 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 08/07 | Warta Gorzow Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 09/06 | Sokol Kleczew Poland League II Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 06/06 | Sokol Kleczew Poland League II Play-Offs |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 03/06 | LKS Lomza Poland III Liga |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Lechia Zielona Góra Poland III Liga |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Warta Gorzow vs Gornik Polkowice?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Gornik Polkowice win (41%). Probabilities: Warta Gorzow 34%, draw 25%, Gornik Polkowice 41%.
How many goals are expected in Warta Gorzow vs Gornik Polkowice?
The model expects 3.23 goals (Warta Gorzow 1.54 · Gornik Polkowice 1.69), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Warta Gorzow vs Gornik Polkowice?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.