Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj vs Barycz Sulow

Team pages: LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj · Barycz Sulow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj1.4

Barycz Sulow1.37

1X2

38% 26% 36%

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Draw Barycz Sulow

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLWLLD

Barycz Sulow 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWLDLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 1472 · Barycz Sulow 1512

	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	Draw	Barycz Sulow
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	38%	25%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barycz Sulow (rating 1472 vs 1512).
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	Barycz Sulow
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	2.5 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.5	3.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:22 +17’	2.35	3.60	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	Barycz Sulow
Carina Gubin	0-0 D	1-0 W
ROW 1964 Rybnik	0-1 L	4-0 W
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	0-2 L	0-3 L
Warta Gorzow	4-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj

LLWDWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
26/09	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
19/09	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	2	6	W
12/09	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-3	0-5	10	2	L
05/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	1	8	W
29/08	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
22/08	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
15/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L

Barycz Sulow

DLWWWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
26/09	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
18/09	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	7	8	L
12/09	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
05/09	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
28/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
19/08	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-3	0-3	10	3	L
15/08	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj vs Barycz Sulow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj win (38%). Probabilities: LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 38%, draw 26%, Barycz Sulow 36%.

How many goals are expected in LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj vs Barycz Sulow?

The model expects 2.77 goals (LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj 1.4 · Barycz Sulow 1.37), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj vs Barycz Sulow?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.