Football · Poland III Liga · 17/10, 15:00

Prediction: Sleza Wroclaw vs Carina Gubin

Team pages: Sleza Wroclaw · Carina Gubin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Sleza Wroclaw1.67

Carina Gubin1.41

1X2

43% 25% 32%

Sleza Wroclaw Draw Carina Gubin

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sleza Wroclaw 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLDWL

Carina Gubin 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDLLWD

Head-to-head

Sleza Wroclaw 2–4–0 Carina Gubin (6 last)

Carina Gubin1-1Sleza Wroclaw
Sleza Wroclaw2-2Carina Gubin
Sleza Wroclaw0-0Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin1-2Sleza Wroclaw
Sleza Wroclaw1-1Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin1-4Sleza Wroclaw

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sleza Wroclaw 1470 · Carina Gubin 1436

	Sleza Wroclaw	Draw	Carina Gubin
Our model	43%	26%	32%
Market	43%	24%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sleza Wroclaw: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sleza Wroclaw	Carina Gubin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2	0.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	3.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +21’	2.05	3.70	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sleza Wroclaw 2–4–0 Carina Gubin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Poland III Liga	Carina Gubin	1-1 HT 0-0	Sleza Wroclaw
20/09/25 Poland III Liga	Sleza Wroclaw	2-2 HT 1-2	Carina Gubin
28/02/25 Poland III Liga	Sleza Wroclaw	0-0 HT 0-0	Carina Gubin
10/08/24 Poland III Liga	Carina Gubin	1-2 HT 0-1	Sleza Wroclaw
26/04/24 Poland III Liga	Sleza Wroclaw	1-1 HT 0-0	Carina Gubin
30/09/23 Poland III Liga	Carina Gubin	1-4 HT 0-3	Sleza Wroclaw

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sleza Wroclaw	Carina Gubin
ROW 1964 Rybnik	1-2 L	0-4 L
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	2-0 W	1-1 D
Zaglebie Sosnowiec	1-3 L	0-4 L
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sleza Wroclaw (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sleza Wroclaw

WLLWLLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
03/10	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
26/09	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
19/09	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	3-2	3-5	5	6	L
12/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
05/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	9	3	L
29/08	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
19/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	0	2	L
15/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W

Carina Gubin

DLLLLDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
26/09	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
18/09	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	7	0	L
11/09	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
28/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
19/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	1	4	L
14/08	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sleza Wroclaw vs Carina Gubin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sleza Wroclaw win (43%). Probabilities: Sleza Wroclaw 43%, draw 25%, Carina Gubin 32%.

How many goals are expected in Sleza Wroclaw vs Carina Gubin?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Sleza Wroclaw 1.67 · Carina Gubin 1.41), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sleza Wroclaw vs Carina Gubin?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.