Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Carina Gubin vs Sparta Katowice

Team pages: Carina Gubin · Sparta Katowice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Carina Gubin1.14

Sparta Katowice1.51

1X2

27% 28% 45%

Carina Gubin Draw Sparta Katowice

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Carina Gubin 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Sparta Katowice 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Carina Gubin 0–2–0 Sparta Katowice (2 last)

Carina Gubin1-1Sparta Katowice
Sparta Katowice1-1Carina Gubin

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sparta Katowice (rating 1456 vs 1567).
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carina Gubin	Sparta Katowice
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.9	1.8 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5	4.2 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:30

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	5.19 → 5.19	Pinn 5.19
X	3.92 → 3.92	Pinn 3.92
2	1.47 → 1.47	Pinn 1.47

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:15 +15’	5.19	3.92	1.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carina Gubin 0–2–0 Sparta Katowice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Poland III Liga	Carina Gubin	1-1 HT 0-0	Sparta Katowice
16/08/25 Poland III Liga	Sparta Katowice	1-1 HT 1-0	Carina Gubin

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	14	6	3	5	21	15	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
11	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
12	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carina Gubin	Sparta Katowice
Sleza Wroclaw	3-1 W	3-0 W
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	0-0 D	2-1 W
Zaglebie Sosnowiec	0-4 L	1-0 W
ROW 1964 Rybnik	0-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Katowice (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carina Gubin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	6	4	W
10/10	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
26/09	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
18/09	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	7	0	L
11/09	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
28/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
19/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	1	4	L

Sparta Katowice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	8	8	W
10/10	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	12	4	D
26/09	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	9	3	W
19/09	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	9	W
13/09	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
05/09	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	7	4	W
29/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
22/08	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	6	0	W
19/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carina Gubin vs Sparta Katowice?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sparta Katowice win (45%). Probabilities: Carina Gubin 27%, draw 28%, Sparta Katowice 45%.

How many goals are expected in Carina Gubin vs Sparta Katowice?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Carina Gubin 1.14 · Sparta Katowice 1.51), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Carina Gubin vs Sparta Katowice?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.