Football · France Ligue 3 · 07/08, 20:45
Prediction: Aubagne Air Bel vs Thionville FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Aubagne Air Bel1.63
Thionville FC1.27
1X2
Aubagne Air Bel
Draw
Thionville FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Aubagne Air Bel
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Thionville FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aubagne Air Bel 1438 · Thionville FC 1495
| Aubagne Air Bel | Draw | Thionville FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Thionville FC (rating 1438 vs 1495).
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aubagne Air Bel | Thionville FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.7 | 1.4 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.8 | 1.8 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0 |
Standings · France Ligue 3
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amiens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cannes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Fleury 91 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rouen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Versailles 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Villefranche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bourg-Peronnas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | La Roche VF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Le Puy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Paris 13 Atletico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | US Quevilly | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aubagne Air Bel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | SC Bastia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Thionville FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Concarneau | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | US Orleans 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Valenciennes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aubagne Air Bel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Sporting Club Toulon Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 0 | D |
| 30/07 | Istres Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/07 | SC Bastia Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 11/07 | Montpellier Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/07 | Le Puy Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 15/05 | Caen France National |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Paris 13 Atletico France National |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Stade Briochin France Ligue 3 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 8 | L |
| 24/04 | Rouen France Ligue 3 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | US Orleans 45 France National |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
Thionville FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Nancy Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Chambly Thelle FC France National 2 |
0-0 | 0-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 09/05 | FC Bastia-Borgo France National 2 |
0-3 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | Bourges 18 France National 2 |
1-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Chantilly France National 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Colmar France National 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Feignies Aulnoye FC France National 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/04 | Dieppe France National 2 |
2-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 29/03 | Beauvais France National 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/03 | Blois Foot 41 France National 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aubagne Air Bel vs Thionville FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Aubagne Air Bel win (44%). Probabilities: Aubagne Air Bel 44%, draw 27%, Thionville FC 28%.
How many goals are expected in Aubagne Air Bel vs Thionville FC?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Aubagne Air Bel 1.63 · Thionville FC 1.27), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Aubagne Air Bel vs Thionville FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.