Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 06/11, 20:00

Prediction: KFC Merelbeke vs KSK Heist

Team pages: KFC Merelbeke · KSK Heist

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

KFC Merelbeke1.04

KSK Heist1.89

1X2

20% 23% 57%

KFC Merelbeke Draw KSK Heist

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

KFC Merelbeke 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDLWDL

KSK Heist 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWDWWW

Head-to-head

KFC Merelbeke 2–0 KSK Heist (2 last)

KSK Heist1-2KFC Merelbeke
KFC Merelbeke3-0KSK Heist

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KFC Merelbeke 1495 · KSK Heist 1531

	KFC Merelbeke	Draw	KSK Heist
Our model	19%	24%	56%
Market	21%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KFC Merelbeke: 2-0-0.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KFC Merelbeke	KSK Heist
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	2.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	3.9 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.20

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.95 ★
X	3.75 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.26
2	1.91 → 1.57▼	Pinn 1.58

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:01 +6’	3.10	3.75	1.91
05:45 +19’	3.60▲	4.00▲	1.75▼
15:36 +6’	4.33▲	4.20▲	1.57▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:39 +29’	4.32	3.92	1.67
03:38 +28’	4.08▼	3.92	1.71▲
10:00 +5’	3.65▼	3.76▼	1.83▲
12:02 +7’	3.75▲	3.79▲	1.80▼
15:52 +16’	3.75	3.82▲	1.80
00:30 +40’	4.01▲	3.92▲	1.72▼
13:08 +1’	4.83▲	4.17▲	1.56▼
18:55 +28’	4.95▲	4.26▲	1.58▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KFC Merelbeke 2–0–0 KSK Heist

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	KSK Heist	1-2 HT 0-0	KFC Merelbeke
16/11/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	KFC Merelbeke	3-0 HT 2-0	KSK Heist

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFC Meux	11	7	1	3	19	11	22
2	Union Rochefortoise	11	6	3	2	22	10	21
3	Union Saint Gilloise II	11	6	3	2	21	13	21
4	Tubize	11	6	2	3	17	12	20
5	RWD Molenbeek	11	6	2	3	16	13	20
6	RAEC Mons	11	5	2	4	25	20	17
7	ROC Charleroi	11	4	3	4	14	22	15
8	Standard Liege II	11	4	2	5	14	9	14
9	Sporting Charleroi U23	11	3	4	4	12	13	13
10	RSC Habay	10	2	3	5	8	13	9
11	RCS Onhaye	10	2	1	7	11	22	7
12	FC Flenu	11	0	2	9	11	32	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KFC Merelbeke	KSK Heist
KVC Houtvenne	1-1 D	4-0 W
Royal Knokke	3-0 W	0-3 L
Tienen	0-0 D	4-0 W
KRC Harelbeke	3-0 W	2-1 W
Belisia Bilzen SV	0-1 L	1-3 L
Cercle Brugge Reserves	3-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: KFC Merelbeke (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KFC Merelbeke

WWLWDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
24/10	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
18/10	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	6	4	W
11/10	RFC Mandel Utd Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
04/10	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
30/09	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
20/09	KRC Harelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
13/09	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
06/09	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
28/08	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-2	4	3	W

KSK Heist

LWDLLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	4-0	6	2	W
24/10	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	5-1	9	1	W
21/10	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	4-0	7	1	W
11/10	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
03/10	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-1	10	5	W
30/09	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	1-3	9	3	L
19/09	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-3	9	3	L
12/09	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
05/09	KRC Harelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-1	12	4	W
30/08	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KFC Merelbeke vs KSK Heist?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KSK Heist win (57%). Probabilities: KFC Merelbeke 20%, draw 23%, KSK Heist 57%.

How many goals are expected in KFC Merelbeke vs KSK Heist?

The model expects 2.92 goals (KFC Merelbeke 1.04 · KSK Heist 1.89), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in KFC Merelbeke vs KSK Heist?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.