Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 06/09, 15:00

Prediction: KFC Merelbeke vs Cercle Brugge Reserves

Team pages: KFC Merelbeke · Cercle Brugge Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

KFC Merelbeke1.63

Cercle Brugge Reserves1.41

1X2

42% 25% 33%

KFC Merelbeke Draw Cercle Brugge Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

KFC Merelbeke 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWWLLW

Cercle Brugge Reserves 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDLDLD

Head-to-head

KFC Merelbeke 2–1–1 Cercle Brugge Reserves (4 last)

KFC Merelbeke2-1Cercle Brugge Reserves
Cercle Brugge Reserves1-0KFC Merelbeke
Cercle Brugge Reserves0-0KFC Merelbeke
KFC Merelbeke4-2Cercle Brugge Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KFC Merelbeke 1479 · Cercle Brugge Reserves 1436

	KFC Merelbeke	Draw	Cercle Brugge Reserves
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KFC Merelbeke (rating 1479 vs 1436).
H2H favours KFC Merelbeke: 2-1-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KFC Merelbeke	Cercle Brugge Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	1.9 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.75

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 3.23 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:37 +79’	2.10	3.75	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:17	1.98	3.61	3.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KFC Merelbeke 2–1–1 Cercle Brugge Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	KFC Merelbeke	2-1 HT 1-0	Cercle Brugge Reserves
01/10/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Cercle Brugge Reserves	1-0 HT 1-0	KFC Merelbeke
19/01/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Cercle Brugge Reserves	0-0 HT 0-0	KFC Merelbeke
28/09/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	KFC Merelbeke	4-2 HT 3-0	Cercle Brugge Reserves

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Rochefortoise	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	RWD Molenbeek	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Tubize	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
4	RFC Meux	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	ROC Charleroi	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
6	Sporting Charleroi U23	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
7	RCS Onhaye	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
8	RAEC Mons	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
9	Standard Liege II	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
10	RSC Habay	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
11	Union Saint Gilloise II	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
12	FC Flenu	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KFC Merelbeke	Cercle Brugge Reserves
KVK Ninove	1-3 L	1-0 W
KVC Houtvenne	2-1 W	1-1 D
OH Leuven II	3-1 W	0-4 L
KVV Zelzate	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KFC Merelbeke

LWLLWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
26/04	KVK Ninove Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	6	0	L
19/04	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
11/04	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	2-1	6	7	W
06/04	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-1	4	1	W
21/03	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-0	8	1	W
15/03	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
08/03	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
28/02	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-1	3	9	W
20/02	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	7	4	L

Cercle Brugge Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
26/04	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
18/04	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	2-2	4	2	D
12/04	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-5	11	1	L
28/03	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
22/03	Sporting Hasselt Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
15/03	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	10	3	L
08/03	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	5-1	8	4	W
28/02	KFC Merelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	8	9	L
22/02	KVK Ninove Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KFC Merelbeke vs Cercle Brugge Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KFC Merelbeke win (42%). Probabilities: KFC Merelbeke 42%, draw 25%, Cercle Brugge Reserves 33%.

How many goals are expected in KFC Merelbeke vs Cercle Brugge Reserves?

The model expects 3.05 goals (KFC Merelbeke 1.63 · Cercle Brugge Reserves 1.41), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in KFC Merelbeke vs Cercle Brugge Reserves?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.