Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 28/08, 20:30

Prediction: Hoogstraten VV vs KFC Merelbeke

Team pages: KFC Merelbeke

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

Hoogstraten VV2.07

KFC Merelbeke1.38

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Hoogstraten VV Draw KFC Merelbeke

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Hoogstraten VV 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWLDWWD

KFC Merelbeke 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hoogstraten VV 4–0 KFC Merelbeke (4 last)

Hoogstraten VV2-0KFC Merelbeke
KFC Merelbeke0-2Hoogstraten VV
Hoogstraten VV2-1KFC Merelbeke
KFC Merelbeke1-3Hoogstraten VV

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hoogstraten VV 1566 · KFC Merelbeke 1461

	Hoogstraten VV	Draw	KFC Merelbeke
Our model	53%	23%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hoogstraten VV (rating 1566 vs 1461).
H2H favours Hoogstraten VV: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hoogstraten VV	KFC Merelbeke
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	2.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.75

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:19 +4’	1.73	3.75	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hoogstraten VV 4–0–0 KFC Merelbeke

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Hoogstraten VV	2-0 HT 0-0	KFC Merelbeke
01/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	KFC Merelbeke	0-2 HT 0-0	Hoogstraten VV
14/12/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Hoogstraten VV	2-1 HT 1-1	KFC Merelbeke
14/09/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	KFC Merelbeke	1-3 HT 1-0	Hoogstraten VV

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Flenu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ROC Charleroi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RAEC Mons	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RCS Onhaye	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RFC Meux	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sporting Charleroi U23	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tubize	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RSC Habay	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RWD Molenbeek	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Standard Liege II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Rochefortoise	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Saint Gilloise II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hoogstraten VV	KFC Merelbeke
Tienen	1-1 D	0-2 L
KVK Ninove	3-1 W	1-3 L
KVV Zelzate	2-1 W	1-2 L
SK Roeselare	1-1 D	1-3 L
OH Leuven II	3-3 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Hoogstraten VV (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hoogstraten VV

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
18/04	KVK Ninove Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-1	7	1	W
11/04	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-1	2	1	W
28/03	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
21/03	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
15/03	KFC Merelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
08/03	Diegem Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
28/02	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	5-3	8	4	W
22/02	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
15/02	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	3-3	5	4	D

KFC Merelbeke

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	KVK Ninove Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	6	0	L
19/04	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
11/04	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	2-1	6	7	W
06/04	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-1	4	1	W
21/03	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-0	8	1	W
15/03	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
08/03	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
28/02	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-1	3	9	W
20/02	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
15/02	Sporting Hasselt Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	4-1	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hoogstraten VV vs KFC Merelbeke?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hoogstraten VV win (52%). Probabilities: Hoogstraten VV 52%, draw 24%, KFC Merelbeke 24%.

How many goals are expected in Hoogstraten VV vs KFC Merelbeke?

The model expects 3.44 goals (Hoogstraten VV 2.07 · KFC Merelbeke 1.38), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hoogstraten VV vs KFC Merelbeke?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.