Football · Wales Premier League · 31/07, 20:45
Prediction: Colwyn Bay vs Trefelin BGC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.93Total
Colwyn Bay2.05
Trefelin BGC0.88
1X2
Colwyn Bay
Draw
Trefelin BGC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Colwyn Bay
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Trefelin BGC
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Colwyn Bay 1507 · Trefelin BGC 1553
| Colwyn Bay | Draw | Trefelin BGC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Market | 66% | 18% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Trefelin BGC (rating 1507 vs 1553).
- High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Colwyn Bay | Trefelin BGC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 3.5 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 1.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 80/0/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.9 | 3.1 / 7.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.4 / 0.1 | 2.1 / 0.2 |
Standings · Wales Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Airbus UK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ammanford AFC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Barry Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Briton Ferry | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caernarfon Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cambrian United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cardiff MU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Connah's Quay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Flint Town Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Haverfordwest County | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Holywell Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Llandudno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Penybont | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | T.N.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Trefelin BGC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colwyn Bay
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Marine UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Altrincham UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 06/07 | Rhyl UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 03/07 | Denbigh Town UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Bala Town UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Connah's Quay Wales Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 03/04 | Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Penybont Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 20/03 | T.N.S. Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Trefelin BGC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Bromsgrove Club Friendly List |
0-3 | 0-8 | – | – | L |
| 03/07 | Carmarthen UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Newport City FC Wales Championship South |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 03/04 | Treowen Stars Wales Championship South |
3-0 | 6-0 | 14 | 1 | W |
| 30/03 | Cwmbran Celtic Wales Championship South |
2-1 | 8-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 27/03 | Pontypridd Utd Wales Championship South |
2-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 21/03 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/03 | Cambrian United Wales Championship South |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 07/03 | Aberystwyth Wales Championship South |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 04/03 | Cardiff Draconians Wales Championship South |
2-1 | 3-1 | 15 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colwyn Bay vs Trefelin BGC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Colwyn Bay win (65%). Probabilities: Colwyn Bay 65%, draw 20%, Trefelin BGC 15%.
How many goals are expected in Colwyn Bay vs Trefelin BGC?
The model expects 2.93 goals (Colwyn Bay 2.05 · Trefelin BGC 0.88), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Colwyn Bay vs Trefelin BGC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.