Football · Wales Premier League · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Cambrian United vs Barry Town

Team pages: Cambrian United · Barry Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.84Total

Cambrian United1.66

Barry Town2.18

1X2

28% 23% 49%

Cambrian United Draw Barry Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Cambrian United 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWLLLL

Barry Town 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Cambrian United 0–1–5 Barry Town (6 last)

Barry Town2-1Cambrian United
Cambrian United0-3Barry Town
Barry Town4-2Cambrian United
Cambrian United1-2Barry Town
Barry Town3-2Cambrian United
Cambrian United0-0Barry Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cambrian United 1463 · Barry Town 1520

	Cambrian United	Draw	Barry Town
Our model	29%	22%	49%
Market	28%	24%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barry Town (rating 1463 vs 1520).
H2H favours Barry Town: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cambrian United	Barry Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 3.2	1.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.7	3.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.75

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
09:57 +11’	3.20	3.75	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cambrian United 0–1–5 Barry Town

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
31/07/26 Wales Premier League	Barry Town	2-1 HT 0-0	Cambrian United
06/12/25 Wales League Cup	Cambrian United	0-3 HT 0-1	Barry Town
18/02/23 Wales Championship South	Barry Town	4-2 HT 1-2	Cambrian United
18/11/22 Wales Championship South	Cambrian United	1-2 HT 1-0	Barry Town
02/03/19 Wales Cup	Barry Town	3-2 HT 1-2	Cambrian United
28/08/18 Wales League Cup	Cambrian United	0-0 HT 0-0	Barry Town

Standings · Wales Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	T.N.S.	15	13	2	0	53	6	41
2	Connah's Quay	15	11	2	2	32	9	35
3	Penybont	14	10	3	1	30	11	33
4	Caernarfon Town	15	9	2	4	42	19	29
5	Colwyn Bay	15	9	2	4	26	17	29
6	Barry Town	15	9	1	5	32	26	28
7	Airbus UK	15	9	0	6	31	22	27
8	Cardiff MU	15	6	4	5	26	23	22
9	Cambrian United	15	5	3	7	23	38	18
10	Llandudno	15	5	1	9	22	28	16
11	Haverfordwest County	15	5	1	9	12	20	16
12	Briton Ferry	15	4	3	8	16	25	15
13	Flint Town Utd	15	4	2	9	19	25	14
14	Ammanford AFC	15	2	3	10	10	42	9
15	Trefelin BGC	15	1	3	11	8	36	6
16	Holywell Town	14	0	2	12	14	49	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cambrian United	Barry Town
Colwyn Bay	0-2 L	2-5 L
Ammanford AFC	0-1 L	2-2 D
T.N.S.	0-9 L	0-1 L
Llandudno	4-3 W	4-1 W
Caernarfon Town	1-9 L	1-0 W
Trefelin BGC	4-0 W	3-0 W
Penybont	2-2 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Barry Town (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cambrian United

DDWWLWLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
23/10	Airbus UK Wales Premier League	2-1	2-3	3	2	L
09/10	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	0-1	0-1	8	8	L
03/10	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-5	0-9	0	2	L
26/09	Llandudno Wales Premier League	3-0	4-3	2	4	W
18/09	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	1-3	1-9	6	6	L
15/09	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	1-0	4-0	9	2	W
11/09	Holywell Town Wales Premier League	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
04/09	Cardiff MU Wales Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
31/08	Penybont Wales Premier League	1-1	2-2	2	9	D

Barry Town

WLWDLLWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Trefelin BGC Wales Premier League	3-0	3-0	13	2	W
24/10	Haverfordwest County Wales Premier League	0-1	1-3	3	10	L
09/10	Penybont Wales Premier League	1-2	1-3	1	1	L
03/10	Caernarfon Town Wales Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
26/09	Connah's Quay Wales Premier League	0-3	1-4	–	–	L
18/09	Colwyn Bay Wales Premier League	2-1	2-5	0	1	L
15/09	Ammanford AFC Wales Premier League	1-0	2-2	10	3	D
11/09	Llandudno Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	9	W
05/09	T.N.S. Wales Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
31/08	Briton Ferry Wales Premier League	2-0	4-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cambrian United vs Barry Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Barry Town win (49%). Probabilities: Cambrian United 28%, draw 23%, Barry Town 49%.

How many goals are expected in Cambrian United vs Barry Town?

The model expects 3.84 goals (Cambrian United 1.66 · Barry Town 2.18), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cambrian United vs Barry Town?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.