Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 01/08, 20:30

Prediction: Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Gimnasia Mendoza1.15

Union Santa Fe1.22

1X2

33% 31% 36%

Gimnasia Mendoza Draw Union Santa Fe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gimnasia Mendoza 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDWLWW

Union Santa Fe 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLDDWLLD

Head-to-head

Gimnasia Mendoza 1–1 Union Santa Fe (2 last)

Union Santa Fe4-0Gimnasia Mendoza
Union Santa Fe1-2Gimnasia Mendoza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gimnasia Mendoza 1489 · Union Santa Fe 1489

	Gimnasia Mendoza	Draw	Union Santa Fe
Our model	33%	31%	36%
Market	32%	32%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gimnasia Mendoza	Union Santa Fe
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.1	3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.1	6.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X2.90

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +5’	2.88	2.90	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia Mendoza 1–0–1 Union Santa Fe

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Union Santa Fe	4-0 HT 2-0	Gimnasia Mendoza
18/04/24 Argentina Cup	Union Santa Fe	1-2 HT 1-1	Gimnasia Mendoza

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gimnasia Mendoza	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
1	Velez Sarsfield	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
3	Platense	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
3	Union Santa Fe	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
5	Defensa y Justicia	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
6	Boca Juniors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	CA Independiente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Lanus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	CA Talleres de Córdoba	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Deportivo Riestra	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Estudiantes LP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Newell's	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Central Cordoba	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
14	Instituto AC Cordoba	1	0	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gimnasia Mendoza	Union Santa Fe
Independiente Rivadavia	1-5 L	2-1 W
Platense	1-1 D	2-2 D
Velez Sarsfield	3-2 W	2-2 D
Newell's	0-1 L	2-3 L
Estudiantes LP	1-2 L	1-2 L
Deportivo Riestra	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Santa Fe (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gimnasia Mendoza

DLLWDDWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
04/05	Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
26/04	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-5	2	9	L
21/04	Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
15/04	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Cup	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
12/04	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
03/04	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	3-2	4	4	W
21/03	Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
18/03	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
12/03	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Union Santa Fe

WWLLDDWLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	2-2	2	5	D
23/05	CA Independiente Argentina Cup	0-2	0-2	1	9	L
13/05	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
10/05	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
02/05	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	8	8	D
27/04	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	2-2	4	10	D
18/04	Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	2-3	15	6	L
11/04	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-2	6	10	L
03/04	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	9	6	W
31/03	Agropecuario Argentina Cup	1-0	2-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Santa Fe win (36%). Probabilities: Gimnasia Mendoza 33%, draw 31%, Union Santa Fe 36%.

How many goals are expected in Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Gimnasia Mendoza 1.15 · Union Santa Fe 1.22), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Gimnasia Mendoza vs Union Santa Fe?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.