Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 09/08, 22:00
Prediction: Gimnasia LP vs Barracas Central
Team pages: Gimnasia LP · Barracas Central
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2Total
Gimnasia LP1.37
Barracas Central0.63
1X2
Gimnasia LP
Draw
Barracas Central
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 61%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Gimnasia LP
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Barracas Central
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gimnasia LP
5–1
Barracas Central
(6 last)
- Barracas Central2-0Gimnasia LP
- Barracas Central0-2Gimnasia LP
- Barracas Central0-1Gimnasia LP
- Gimnasia LP2-1Barracas Central
- Gimnasia LP2-0Barracas Central
- Barracas Central1-2Gimnasia LP
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gimnasia LP 1559 · Barracas Central 1499
| Gimnasia LP | Draw | Barracas Central | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| Market | 55% | 29% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gimnasia LP (rating 1559 vs 1499).
- H2H favours Gimnasia LP: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gimnasia LP | Barracas Central | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.7 | 1.9 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia LP 5–0–1 Barracas Central
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Barracas Central | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gimnasia LP |
| 01/12/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Barracas Central | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Gimnasia LP |
| 22/08/24 Argentina Cup | Barracas Central | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gimnasia LP |
| 13/06/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Gimnasia LP | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Barracas Central |
| 09/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Gimnasia LP | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Barracas Central |
| 24/10/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Barracas Central | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Gimnasia LP |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Barracas Central | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Atlético Tucumán | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Independiente Rivadavia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Banfield | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 | Racing Club | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 7 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | CA Tigre | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Belgrano | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Huracan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Gimnasia LP | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Aldosivi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Rosario Central | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Sarmiento | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| 15 | River Plate | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gimnasia LP | Barracas Central |
|---|---|---|
| Aldosivi | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| River Plate | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Racing Club | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Barracas Central (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gimnasia LP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 30/07 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/05 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 26/04 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 23/04 | Acassuso Argentina Cup |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 13/04 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
Barracas Central
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/07 | Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 03/06 | Huracan Argentina Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 28/05 | Vasco da Gama Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 20/05 | Audax Italiano Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 07/05 | Olimpia Asuncion Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 02/05 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 29/04 | Audax Italiano Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gimnasia LP vs Barracas Central?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gimnasia LP win (54%). Probabilities: Gimnasia LP 54%, draw 29%, Barracas Central 16%.
How many goals are expected in Gimnasia LP vs Barracas Central?
The model expects 2 goals (Gimnasia LP 1.37 · Barracas Central 0.63), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Gimnasia LP vs Barracas Central?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.