Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 09/08, 22:00

Prediction: Defensa y Justicia vs Newell's

Team pages: Defensa y Justicia · Newell's

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Defensa y Justicia1.36

Newell's1.15

1X2

40% 31% 30%

Defensa y Justicia Draw Newell's

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Defensa y Justicia 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLLLDW

Newell's 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWDDWDLD

Head-to-head

Defensa y Justicia 3–1–2 Newell's (6 last)

Newell's2-3Defensa y Justicia
Defensa y Justicia1-1Newell's
Defensa y Justicia0-2Newell's
Newell's0-1Defensa y Justicia
Newell's1-0Defensa y Justicia
Defensa y Justicia1-0Newell's

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Defensa y Justicia 1460 · Newell's 1513

	Defensa y Justicia	Draw	Newell's
Our model	40%	29%	30%
Market	39%	32%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newell's (rating 1460 vs 1513).
H2H favours Defensa y Justicia: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Defensa y Justicia	Newell's
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	2.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	5.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X2.90

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:41 +2’	2.38	2.90	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensa y Justicia 3–1–2 Newell's

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Newell's	2-3 HT 0-2	Defensa y Justicia
17/08/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Defensa y Justicia	1-1 HT 1-1	Newell's
23/05/25 Argentina Cup	Defensa y Justicia	0-2 HT 0-1	Newell's
12/02/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Newell's	0-1 HT 0-0	Defensa y Justicia
25/05/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Newell's	1-0 HT 0-0	Defensa y Justicia
17/04/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Defensa y Justicia	1-0 HT 0-0	Newell's

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Velez Sarsfield	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	CA Independiente	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
3	Gimnasia Mendoza	3	2	0	1	3	1	6
4	Defensa y Justicia	3	1	1	1	3	5	4
5	Deportivo Riestra	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
6	Estudiantes LP	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
7	Lanus	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	Instituto AC Cordoba	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	San Lorenzo	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
9	Newell's	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
11	Platense	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
12	Union Santa Fe	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
13	CA Talleres de Córdoba	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
14	Boca Juniors	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
14	Central Cordoba	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Defensa y Justicia	Newell's
Boca Juniors	0-4 L	2-2 D
CA Independiente	1-3 L	0-1 L
CA Talleres de Córdoba	1-2 L	1-0 W
Instituto AC Cordoba	0-2 L	1-1 D
Union Santa Fe	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Newell's (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Defensa y Justicia

WWLLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	2-1	5	6	W
24/07	Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
16/07	Racing Club Argentina Cup	0-2	1-4	2	4	L
04/05	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
24/04	Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
19/04	CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	1-3	5	4	L
13/04	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
07/04	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
02/04	CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Cup	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
21/03	Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-0	5	6	W

Newell's

LWDWDDWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
31/07	CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
30/07	Leones de Rosario Argentina Copa Santa Fe	0-1	1-1	4	12	D
25/07	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
05/05	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
26/04	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
18/04	Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional	2-1	3-2	4	6	W
12/04	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
06/04	Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
30/03	Acassuso Argentina Cup	0-1	0-2	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Defensa y Justicia vs Newell's?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Defensa y Justicia win (40%). Probabilities: Defensa y Justicia 40%, draw 31%, Newell's 30%.

How many goals are expected in Defensa y Justicia vs Newell's?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Defensa y Justicia 1.36 · Newell's 1.15), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Defensa y Justicia vs Newell's?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.