Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 04/08, 00:00
Prediction: Velez Sarsfield vs CA Independiente
Team pages: Velez Sarsfield · CA Independiente
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.3Total
Velez Sarsfield1.3
CA Independiente1
1X2
Velez Sarsfield
Draw
CA Independiente
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Velez Sarsfield
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
CA Independiente
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Velez Sarsfield
2–2–2
CA Independiente
(6 last)
- CA Independiente1-1Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield2-1CA Independiente
- CA Independiente3-0Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield1-0CA Independiente
- CA Independiente1-1Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield0-1CA Independiente
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Velez Sarsfield 1514 · CA Independiente 1543
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | CA Independiente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 41% | 32% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Velez Sarsfield | CA Independiente | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 1.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 2.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Velez Sarsfield 2–2–2 CA Independiente
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 17/08/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 2-1 HT 1-0 | CA Independiente |
| 13/02/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 27/09/24 Argentina Cup | Velez Sarsfield | 1-0 HT 0-0 | CA Independiente |
| 27/05/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 31/01/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 0-1 HT 0-1 | CA Independiente |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Riestra | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | CA Independiente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Lanus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Newell's | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Platense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Union Santa Fe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Defensa y Justicia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Central Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Estudiantes LP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Boca Juniors | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Velez Sarsfield | CA Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| San Lorenzo | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Independiente (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 17 | 8 | L |
| 05/05 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 01/05 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 27/04 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 21/04 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 14/04 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 07/04 | Deportivo Armenio Argentina Cup |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 21/03 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
CA Independiente
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 10/05 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 24/04 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 19/04 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 04/04 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/03 | Sportivo y Biblioteca Atenas Argentina Cup |
3-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Velez Sarsfield vs CA Independiente?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Velez Sarsfield win (42%). Probabilities: Velez Sarsfield 42%, draw 31%, CA Independiente 27%.
How many goals are expected in Velez Sarsfield vs CA Independiente?
The model expects 2.3 goals (Velez Sarsfield 1.3 · CA Independiente 1), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Velez Sarsfield vs CA Independiente?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.