Prediction: Marsaxlokk FC vs Birkirkara
Team pages: Marsaxlokk FC · Birkirkara
- Birkirkara0-1Marsaxlokk FC
- Marsaxlokk FC2-1Birkirkara
- Marsaxlokk FC0-0Birkirkara
- Birkirkara1-1Marsaxlokk FC
- Birkirkara1-1Marsaxlokk FC
- Marsaxlokk FC0-2Birkirkara
| Marsaxlokk FC | Draw | Birkirkara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marsaxlokk FC (rating 1541 vs 1480).
- H2H favours Marsaxlokk FC: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marsaxlokk FC | Birkirkara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.5 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.1 | 2.6 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marsaxlokk FC 2–3–1 Birkirkara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Malta Premier League | Birkirkara | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Marsaxlokk FC |
| 11/01/26 Malta Premier League | Marsaxlokk FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Birkirkara |
| 28/09/25 Malta Premier League | Marsaxlokk FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Birkirkara |
| 27/04/25 Malta Premier League | Birkirkara | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Marsaxlokk FC |
| 08/03/25 Malta Premier League | Birkirkara | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Marsaxlokk FC |
| 29/08/24 Malta Premier League | Marsaxlokk FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Birkirkara |
Standings · Malta Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Marsaxlokk FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 14 |
| 3 | Floriana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Mosta FC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 12 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 11 |
| 6 | Sliema Wanderers | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| 7 | Balzan FC | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Birkirkara | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 9 | Hibernians | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 10 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 3 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Marsaxlokk FC | Birkirkara |
|---|---|---|
| Saint Patrick FC Zabbar | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Hamrun Spartans | 1-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Mosta FC | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Valletta | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Hibernians | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Marsaxlokk FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marsaxlokk FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 18/09 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
3-1 | 5-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 28/08 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 21/08 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/08 | Balzan FC Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Floriana Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 02/05 | Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
Birkirkara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Valletta Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 9 | L |
| 18/09 | Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/08 | Gzira United Malta Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 30/04 | Mosta FC Malta Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 24/04 | Tarxien Rainbows FC Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Hibernians Malta Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marsaxlokk FC vs Birkirkara?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Birkirkara win (36%). Probabilities: Marsaxlokk FC 35%, draw 29%, Birkirkara 36%.
How many goals are expected in Marsaxlokk FC vs Birkirkara?
The model expects 2.4 goals (Marsaxlokk FC 1.19 · Birkirkara 1.21), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Marsaxlokk FC vs Birkirkara?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.