Football · Malta Premier League · 25/10, 15:30

Prediction: Valletta vs Hamrun Spartans

Team pages: Valletta · Hamrun Spartans

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Valletta1.26

Hamrun Spartans1.13

1X2

39% 29% 32%

Valletta Draw Hamrun Spartans

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Valletta 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDWWWW

Hamrun Spartans 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWWDDD

Head-to-head

Valletta 2–2–2 Hamrun Spartans (6 last)

Valletta0-2Hamrun Spartans
Valletta2-1Hamrun Spartans
Valletta1-1Hamrun Spartans
Valletta0-0Hamrun Spartans
Valletta2-0Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans1-0Valletta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valletta 1602 · Hamrun Spartans 1531

	Valletta	Draw	Hamrun Spartans
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	39%	28%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valletta (rating 1602 vs 1531).
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valletta	Hamrun Spartans
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.20

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +34’	2.30	3.20	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Valletta 2–2–2 Hamrun Spartans

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Malta Premier League	Valletta	0-2 HT 0-2	Hamrun Spartans
02/05/26 Malta Premier League	Valletta	2-1 HT 0-0	Hamrun Spartans
04/03/26 Malta FA Trophy	Valletta	1-1 HT 0-0	Hamrun Spartans
24/01/26 Malta Premier League	Valletta	0-0 HT 0-0	Hamrun Spartans
30/11/25 Malta Jubilee Cup	Valletta	2-0 HT 1-0	Hamrun Spartans
22/11/25 Malta Premier League	Hamrun Spartans	1-0 HT 0-0	Valletta

Standings · Malta Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valletta	9	7	1	1	21	7	22
2	Marsaxlokk FC	9	5	2	2	15	12	17
3	Floriana	9	4	4	1	21	12	16
4	Sliema Wanderers	9	4	2	3	12	12	14
5	Mosta FC	9	3	4	2	13	13	13
6	Hamrun Spartans	9	3	4	2	14	11	13
7	Hibernians	9	3	3	3	9	12	12
8	Balzan FC	9	2	5	2	12	10	11
9	Birkirkara	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
10	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	9	2	2	5	10	15	8
11	Gzira United	9	0	4	5	7	19	4
12	Birzebbuga	9	1	1	7	5	17	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valletta	Hamrun Spartans
Mosta FC	2-0 W	0-2 L
Birkirkara	2-0 W	0-1 L
Birzebbuga	3-0 W	2-0 W
Balzan FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Hibernians	2-0 W	2-2 D
Marsaxlokk FC	1-2 L	4-1 W
Gzira United	3-0 W	2-2 D
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	4-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Valletta (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Valletta

LWWLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Mosta FC Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
17/10	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	7	W
10/10	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	9	W
19/09	Birzebbuga Malta Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
13/09	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	1-2	2-2	10	10	D
02/09	Hibernians Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
28/08	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	0-2	1-2	7	6	L
23/08	Gzira United Malta Premier League	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/08	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	1-2	4-2	–	–	W
15/05	Hamrun Spartans Malta Premier League	0-2	0-2	1	3	L

Hamrun Spartans

WLLDWWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
18/10	Gzira United Malta Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
11/10	Hibernians Malta Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
18/09	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	1-1	4-1	1	6	W
11/09	Birzebbuga Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
06/09	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
29/08	Floriana Malta Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
22/08	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
17/08	Mosta FC Malta Premier League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
15/05	Valletta Malta Premier League	2-0	2-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valletta vs Hamrun Spartans?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valletta win (39%). Probabilities: Valletta 39%, draw 29%, Hamrun Spartans 32%.

How many goals are expected in Valletta vs Hamrun Spartans?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Valletta 1.26 · Hamrun Spartans 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Valletta vs Hamrun Spartans?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.