Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 01/08, 23:00

Prediction: Estudiantes LP vs Defensa y Justicia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

Estudiantes LP1.55

Defensa y Justicia0.73

1X2

56% 28% 16%

Estudiantes LP Draw Defensa y Justicia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Estudiantes LP 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDWDLLWW

Defensa y Justicia 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWWLLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Estudiantes LP 3–1–2 Defensa y Justicia (6 last)

Defensa y Justicia0-0Estudiantes LP
Estudiantes LP1-0Defensa y Justicia
Defensa y Justicia1-0Estudiantes LP
Estudiantes LP1-0Defensa y Justicia
Defensa y Justicia1-0Estudiantes LP
Estudiantes LP1-0Defensa y Justicia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estudiantes LP 1575 · Defensa y Justicia 1461

	Estudiantes LP	Draw	Defensa y Justicia
Our model	56%	28%	16%
Market	56%	28%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Estudiantes LP (rating 1575 vs 1461).
H2H favours Estudiantes LP: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estudiantes LP	Defensa y Justicia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.5	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.30

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:21 +8’	1.67	3.30	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estudiantes LP 3–1–2 Defensa y Justicia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Defensa y Justicia	0-0 HT 0-0	Estudiantes LP
23/09/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Estudiantes LP	1-0 HT 0-0	Defensa y Justicia
09/03/25 Argentina Liga Profesional	Defensa y Justicia	1-0 HT 0-0	Estudiantes LP
28/09/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Estudiantes LP	1-0 HT 1-0	Defensa y Justicia
29/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional	Defensa y Justicia	1-0 HT 1-0	Estudiantes LP
14/12/23 Argentina Cup	Estudiantes LP	1-0 HT 0-0	Defensa y Justicia

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lanus	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
1	Gimnasia Mendoza	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
1	Newell's	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
1	Velez Sarsfield	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
5	Platense	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
5	Union Santa Fe	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
7	Defensa y Justicia	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
8	Boca Juniors	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	CA Independiente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Deportivo Riestra	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Estudiantes LP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Central Cordoba	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
12	San Lorenzo	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
12	CA Talleres de Córdoba	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
12	Instituto AC Cordoba	1	0	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estudiantes LP	Defensa y Justicia
Racing Club	0-1 L	1-4 L
CA Talleres de Córdoba	0-0 D	1-2 L
Instituto AC Cordoba	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Estudiantes LP (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Estudiantes LP

WWDDWDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Rosario Central Argentina Cup	2-0	3-0	2	6	W
27/05	Independiente Medellin Copa Libertadores	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
21/05	Flamengo Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
10/05	Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
07/05	Cusco FC Copa Libertadores	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
03/05	Platense Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
30/04	Flamengo Copa Libertadores	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
25/04	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
18/04	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
15/04	Cusco FC Copa Libertadores	1-1	2-1	4	5	W

Defensa y Justicia

WWWLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
16/07	Racing Club Argentina Cup	0-2	1-4	2	4	L
04/05	Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
24/04	Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
19/04	CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	1-3	5	4	L
13/04	CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
07/04	Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
02/04	CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Cup	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
21/03	Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
16/03	San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	5-2	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estudiantes LP vs Defensa y Justicia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Estudiantes LP win (56%). Probabilities: Estudiantes LP 56%, draw 28%, Defensa y Justicia 16%.

How many goals are expected in Estudiantes LP vs Defensa y Justicia?

The model expects 2.27 goals (Estudiantes LP 1.55 · Defensa y Justicia 0.73), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Estudiantes LP vs Defensa y Justicia?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.