Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 02/08, 22:00
Prediction: Newell's vs Boca Juniors
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.1Total
Newell's0.9
Boca Juniors1.2
1X2
Newell's
Draw
Boca Juniors
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Newell's
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Boca Juniors
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newell's
1–5
Boca Juniors
(6 last)
- Boca Juniors2-0Newell's
- Boca Juniors5-0Newell's
- Newell's2-0Boca Juniors
- Newell's0-1Boca Juniors
- Newell's1-3Boca Juniors
- Boca Juniors1-0Newell's
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newell's 1502 · Boca Juniors 1567
| Newell's | Draw | Boca Juniors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 32% | 42% |
| Market | 27% | 31% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boca Juniors (rating 1502 vs 1567).
- H2H favours Boca Juniors: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newell's | Boca Juniors | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.4 | 2.7 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.2 | 4.7 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newell's 1–0–5 Boca Juniors
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Newell's |
| 06/10/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Newell's |
| 31/03/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Boca Juniors |
| 09/12/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Boca Juniors |
| 06/04/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Newell's | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Boca Juniors |
| 12/11/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Newell's |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lanus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Newell's | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Velez Sarsfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Platense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Union Santa Fe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Defensa y Justicia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Boca Juniors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | CA Independiente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Deportivo Riestra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Estudiantes LP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Central Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | San Lorenzo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newell's
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 18/04 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 06/04 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/03 | Acassuso Argentina Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 21/03 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 17/03 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-5 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 11/03 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
Boca Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | Sarmiento Argentina Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/07 | Athletico Paranaense America Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Universidad Catolica Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | Cruzeiro Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 17 | 7 | D |
| 06/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 11 | L |
| 02/05 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 29/04 | Cruzeiro Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 24/04 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newell's vs Boca Juniors?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Boca Juniors win (42%). Probabilities: Newell's 26%, draw 32%, Boca Juniors 42%.
How many goals are expected in Newell's vs Boca Juniors?
The model expects 2.1 goals (Newell's 0.9 · Boca Juniors 1.2), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Newell's vs Boca Juniors?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.