Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 03/08, 21:45
Prediction: Sarmiento vs Independiente Rivadavia
Team pages: Sarmiento · Independiente Rivadavia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
Sarmiento1.07
Independiente Rivadavia1.29
1X2
Sarmiento
Draw
Independiente Rivadavia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sarmiento
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Independiente Rivadavia
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sarmiento
3–1–2
Independiente Rivadavia
(6 last)
- Independiente Rivadavia2-1Sarmiento
- Sarmiento0-1Independiente Rivadavia
- Sarmiento2-0Independiente Rivadavia
- Independiente Rivadavia0-1Sarmiento
- Independiente Rivadavia0-0Sarmiento
- Independiente Rivadavia0-1Sarmiento
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sarmiento 1466 · Independiente Rivadavia 1579
| Sarmiento | Draw | Independiente Rivadavia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 30% | 40% |
| Market | 29% | 32% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Rivadavia (rating 1466 vs 1579).
- H2H favours Sarmiento: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarmiento | Independiente Rivadavia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.6 | 2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.8 | 2.1 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.4 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarmiento 3–1–2 Independiente Rivadavia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Independiente Rivadavia | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Sarmiento |
| 26/05/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Independiente Rivadavia |
| 25/05/19 Argentina Nacional B | Sarmiento | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Rivadavia |
| 19/05/19 Argentina Nacional B | Independiente Rivadavia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
| 13/03/19 Argentina Nacional B | Independiente Rivadavia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
| 18/03/18 Argentina Nacional B | Independiente Rivadavia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Belgrano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Racing Club | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Barracas Central | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Huracan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Aldosivi | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Atlético Tucumán | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Independiente Rivadavia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Sarmiento | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | Rosario Central | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Gimnasia LP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Banfield | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | River Plate | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | CA Tigre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sarmiento | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| CA Tigre | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Aldosivi | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Sarmiento (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarmiento
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 17/07 | Boca Juniors Argentina Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 20/04 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/04 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 09/04 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/04 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 15/03 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
Independiente Rivadavia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 12/07 | CA Tigre Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Bolivar Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 07/05 | Fluminense Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 01/05 | Deportivo La Guaira Copa Libertadores |
3-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 9 | W |
| 20/04 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarmiento vs Independiente Rivadavia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Independiente Rivadavia win (40%). Probabilities: Sarmiento 29%, draw 31%, Independiente Rivadavia 40%.
How many goals are expected in Sarmiento vs Independiente Rivadavia?
The model expects 2.35 goals (Sarmiento 1.07 · Independiente Rivadavia 1.29), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarmiento vs Independiente Rivadavia?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.