Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 03/08, 00:15
Prediction: River Plate vs Rosario Central
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.29Total
River Plate1.31
Rosario Central0.98
1X2
River Plate
Draw
Rosario Central
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
River Plate
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Rosario Central
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
River Plate
3–2–1
Rosario Central
(6 last)
- River Plate1-0Rosario Central
- Rosario Central0-0River Plate
- Rosario Central2-1River Plate
- River Plate2-2Rosario Central
- River Plate4-0Rosario Central
- River Plate2-1Rosario Central
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · River Plate 1504 · Rosario Central 1527
| River Plate | Draw | Rosario Central | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 31% | 27% |
| Market | 42% | 32% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours River Plate: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| River Plate | Rosario Central | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.6 | 1.5 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 5.1 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · River Plate 3–2–1 Rosario Central
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Rosario Central |
| 02/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Rosario Central | 0-0 HT 0-0 | River Plate |
| 06/10/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Rosario Central | 2-1 HT 1-1 | River Plate |
| 30/03/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Rosario Central |
| 08/12/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | River Plate | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Rosario Central |
| 08/04/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | River Plate | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Rosario Central |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentinos Jrs | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Belgrano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Racing Club | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Barracas Central | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Huracan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Aldosivi | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Atlético Tucumán | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Independiente Rivadavia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Sarmiento | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | Rosario Central | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Gimnasia LP | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Banfield | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | River Plate | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | CA Tigre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
River Plate
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 18/07 | Aldosivi Argentina Cup |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 03/07 | Flamengo America Friendlies |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 28/05 | Blooming Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Bragantino Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 14/05 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 08/05 | Carabobo Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 10 | W |
Rosario Central
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Argentino de Rosario Argentina Copa Santa Fe |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 24/07 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 28/05 | Independiente del Valle Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | UCV Copa Libertadores |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 13/05 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 06/05 | Libertad Asuncion Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in River Plate vs Rosario Central?
According to our model, the most likely result is a River Plate win (43%). Probabilities: River Plate 43%, draw 31%, Rosario Central 26%.
How many goals are expected in River Plate vs Rosario Central?
The model expects 2.29 goals (River Plate 1.31 · Rosario Central 0.98), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in River Plate vs Rosario Central?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.