Football · France Ligue 3 · 29/08, 14:45

Prediction: Aubagne Air Bel vs Bourg-Peronnas

Team pages: Aubagne Air Bel · Bourg-Peronnas

Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.96Total
Aubagne Air Bel1.08
Bourg-Peronnas0.88
1X2
39% 32% 28%
Aubagne Air Bel Draw Bourg-Peronnas
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Aubagne Air Bel 2-2-6 (W-D-L)
DWLLLDWLLL
Bourg-Peronnas 4-0-6 (W-D-L)
LWLLLWWWLL
Head-to-head
Aubagne Air Bel 2–1–1 Bourg-Peronnas (4 last)
  • Aubagne Air Bel1-0Bourg-Peronnas
  • Bourg-Peronnas0-0Aubagne Air Bel
  • Aubagne Air Bel1-0Bourg-Peronnas
  • Bourg-Peronnas2-1Aubagne Air Bel
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aubagne Air Bel 1416 · Bourg-Peronnas 1446
Aubagne Air BelDrawBourg-Peronnas
Our model39%34%28%
Market40%31%29%
Estimated total (ours) 1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Aubagne Air Bel: 2-1-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Aubagne Air BelBourg-Peronnas
Goals for / against (FT)0.9 / 1.60.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 10.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)11/33/56%20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)1.9 / 3.82.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.6 / 0.24.1 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aubagne Air Bel 211 Bourg-Peronnas

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DateHomeScoreAway
13/02/26
France Ligue 3
Aubagne Air Bel1-0
HT 0-0
Bourg-Peronnas
05/09/25
France Ligue 3
Bourg-Peronnas0-0
HT 0-0
Aubagne Air Bel
14/03/25
France Ligue 3
Aubagne Air Bel1-0
HT 1-0
Bourg-Peronnas
18/10/24
France Ligue 3
Bourg-Peronnas2-1
HT 1-0
Aubagne Air Bel

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentAubagne Air BelBourg-Peronnas
Caen 0-1 L 0-2 L
Thionville FC 0-3 L 0-2 L
Paris 13 Atletico 1-1 D 1-0 W
Record vs common 0 W 1 D 2 L 1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bourg-Peronnas (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aubagne Air Bel

DWLLLDWLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
20/08 Caen
France Ligue 3
0-1 L
14/08 SC Bastia
France Ligue 3
0-1 0-1 58 L
07/08 Thionville FC
France Ligue 3
0-1 0-3 16 L
15/05 Caen
France Ligue 3
1-0 3-1 33 W
09/05 Paris 13 Atletico
France Ligue 3
1-1 1-1 24 D
01/05 Stade Briochin
France Ligue 3
1-2 1-2 118 L
24/04 Rouen
France National
1-2 1-3 23 L
17/04 US Orleans 45
France Ligue 3
0-0 0-2 15 L
10/04 Le Puy
France Ligue 3
1-1 2-1 41 W
03/04 Chateauroux
France Ligue 3
0-1 1-1 55 D

Bourg-Peronnas

LWLLLWWWLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
20/08 Thionville FC
France Ligue 3
0-2 0-2 75 L
14/08 Valenciennes
France Ligue 3
0-1 0-2 64 L
07/08 Villefranche
France Ligue 3
1-0 3-2 53 W
09/05 Valenciennes
France National
0-0 1-0 85 W
02/05 Villefranche
France National
0-0 1-0 76 W
24/04 Sochaux
France National
0-0 1-2 15 L
17/04 Caen
France Ligue 3
0-1 0-2 47 L
10/04 Dijon
France Ligue 3
0-1 0-2 11 L
03/04 Paris 13 Atletico
France Ligue 3
1-0 1-0 63 W
27/03 FC Fleury 91
France Ligue 3
0-1 0-3 64 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aubagne Air Bel vs Bourg-Peronnas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aubagne Air Bel win (39%). Probabilities: Aubagne Air Bel 39%, draw 32%, Bourg-Peronnas 28%.

How many goals are expected in Aubagne Air Bel vs Bourg-Peronnas?

The model expects 1.96 goals (Aubagne Air Bel 1.08 · Bourg-Peronnas 0.88), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aubagne Air Bel vs Bourg-Peronnas?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.