Football · Malta Premier League · 18/10, 11:00

Prediction: Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans

Team pages: Gzira United · Hamrun Spartans

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Gzira United0.7

Hamrun Spartans1.55

1X2

17% 25% 58%

Gzira United Draw Hamrun Spartans

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Gzira United 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLDDD

Hamrun Spartans 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLLDWWWD

Head-to-head

Gzira United 2–2–2 Hamrun Spartans (6 last)

Hamrun Spartans0-1Gzira United
Gzira United0-0Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans0-0Gzira United
Hamrun Spartans0-1Gzira United
Gzira United1-2Hamrun Spartans
Gzira United0-1Hamrun Spartans

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gzira United 1444 · Hamrun Spartans 1505

	Gzira United	Draw	Hamrun Spartans
Our model	16%	28%	56%
Market	18%	23%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hamrun Spartans (rating 1444 vs 1505).
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gzira United	Hamrun Spartans
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.90

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 6.50▲	Bet365 6.50
X	3.90 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
2	1.53 → 1.38▼	Bet365 1.38

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +8’	5.00	3.90	1.53
09:05 +13’	6.50▲	4.20▲	1.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gzira United 2–2–2 Hamrun Spartans

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/04/26 Malta Premier League	Hamrun Spartans	0-1 HT 0-0	Gzira United
03/02/26 Malta Premier League	Gzira United	0-0 HT 0-0	Hamrun Spartans
20/09/25 Malta Premier League	Hamrun Spartans	0-0 HT 0-0	Gzira United
02/03/25 Malta Premier League	Hamrun Spartans	0-1 HT 0-1	Gzira United
07/11/24 Malta Premier League	Gzira United	1-2 HT 0-0	Hamrun Spartans
13/04/24 Malta Premier League	Gzira United	0-1 HT 0-1	Hamrun Spartans

Standings · Malta Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valletta	7	5	1	1	17	6	16
2	Marsaxlokk FC	7	4	2	1	13	10	14
3	Floriana	7	4	2	1	17	8	14
4	Mosta FC	7	3	3	1	10	8	12
5	Hamrun Spartans	7	3	2	2	11	8	11
6	Sliema Wanderers	7	3	2	2	8	8	11
7	Balzan FC	7	2	4	1	10	7	10
8	Birkirkara	7	3	1	3	9	6	10
9	Hibernians	7	1	3	3	6	11	6
10	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	7	1	2	4	6	11	5
11	Gzira United	7	0	3	4	4	15	3
12	Birzebbuga	7	0	1	6	3	16	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gzira United	Hamrun Spartans
Mosta FC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Saint Patrick FC Zabbar	0-0 D	2-1 W
Floriana	1-4 L	1-1 D
Valletta	0-3 L	2-0 W
Birkirkara	0-4 L	0-1 L
Marsaxlokk FC	1-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hamrun Spartans (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gzira United

LDLLLLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Mosta FC Malta Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
11/10	Sliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
14/09	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
02/09	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-0	1-4	0	4	L
29/08	Balzan FC Malta Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
23/08	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
17/08	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
30/04	Floriana Malta Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
26/04	Naxxar Lions Malta Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
19/04	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	0-0	1-2	0	5	L

Hamrun Spartans

LDWLLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Hibernians Malta Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
18/09	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	1-1	4-1	1	6	W
11/09	Birzebbuga Malta Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
06/09	Saint Patrick FC Zabbar Malta Premier League	1-1	2-1	9	4	W
29/08	Floriana Malta Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
22/08	Birkirkara Malta Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
17/08	Mosta FC Malta Premier League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
15/05	Valletta Malta Premier League	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
09/05	Marsaxlokk FC Malta Premier League	0-1	1-1	9	8	D
02/05	Valletta Malta Premier League	0-0	1-2	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hamrun Spartans win (58%). Probabilities: Gzira United 17%, draw 25%, Hamrun Spartans 58%.

How many goals are expected in Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Gzira United 0.7 · Hamrun Spartans 1.55), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gzira United vs Hamrun Spartans?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.