Prediction: Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting
Expected goals: 1.84 (Cerro Largo 0.92 · Defensor Sporting 0.92). The model gives 34% home, 32% draw, 34% away. Under 2 goals (53%) and not both to score (53%). Most likely score: 0-0.
On recent form, Cerro Largo is 3-3-4 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Defensor Sporting 2-4-4 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Cerro Largo won 2 and Defensor Sporting 3, with 1 draw.
| Cerro Largo | Draw | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 35% | 32% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Defensor Sporting: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cerro Largo | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 2.7 | 1.5 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.4 | 6 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro Largo 2–1–3 Defensor Sporting
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 Uruguay Apertura | Defensor Sporting | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 13/09/25 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Defensor Sporting |
| 25/05/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Defensor Sporting | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 23/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Defensor Sporting | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 27/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Defensor Sporting |
| 26/05/24 Uruguay Apertura | Defensor Sporting | 3-1 HT 3-1 | Cerro Largo |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Central Espanol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Liverpool Montevideo | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | Boston River | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 7 | Cerro | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cerro Largo | Defensor Sporting |
|---|---|---|
| Boston River | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Penarol | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Club Atletico Progreso | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerro Largo (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cerro Largo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 12/05 | Penarol Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 20/04 | Boston River Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Cerro Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 05/04 | Albion FC Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
Defensor Sporting
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Cruzeiro America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 05/05 | Penarol Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 9 | D |
| 28/04 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 11 | W |
| 18/04 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 11/04 | Boston River Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerro Largo win (34%). Probabilities: Cerro Largo 34%, draw 32%, Defensor Sporting 34%.
How many goals are expected in Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
The model expects 1.84 goals (Cerro Largo 0.92 · Defensor Sporting 0.92), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.